National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDEPZ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ
Product Timestamp: 2023-12-28 10:12 UTC
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883 FXUS64 KEPZ 281012 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 312 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 High pressure will dominate through this weekend with dry conditions. Light lowland rain and mountain snow will be possible late Monday into Tuesday but impacts will be minimal. Temperatures near normal through the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 Water vapor continues to show an impressive circulation across the center portions of the country. Aloft, we remain in northwest flow with ridging upstream along with high clouds. Ridging will remain in control through the weekend with occasional high clouds (breezy winds Sunday as well) and temperatures warming a few degrees (still 50s much of the lowlands for highs). A fast moving upper level system will dive across the Borderland early next week (late Monday into Tuesday) with the chance for lowland rain and mountain snow showers. GEFS & EPS ENS 50th-90th QPF percentiles appear to be a tad bit less than yesterday at this time. 50th percentile (for both ensemble suites) has very light precipitation, which is what we are expecting with this next event. Impacts will be low to minimal at best based on this latest guidance with medium to high confidence. The next storm system will approach later next week, but guidance still suggests a pretty minor event as well (although percentiles are a smidge higher with this next event compared to the one earlier in the week). Will have to watch this one but at this time does not appear to be significant. Temperatures through the next week will be near average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM MST Wed Dec 27 2023 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG BKN250. There will be some SKC early in the period. The winds will be light and variable. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM MST Thu Dec 28 2023 No major concerns in regards to fire weather over the next week. Generally dry conditions expected through this weekend with breezy conditions (west 20 ft winds 10 to 16 mph) on Sunday and temperatures around average. A fast moving upper level storm system will move through the Borderland late Monday into Tuesday with a chance for very light lowland rain and mountain snow. Moderate to high confidence in minimal to no impacts. Then another system will be possible later next week. Generally not expecting this event to be significant either based on the latest guidance but this will be worth watching. Ventilation poor the next few days then increasing to good Sunday due to the breezy conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 55 31 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 53 25 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 27 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 24 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 36 17 39 20 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 28 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 26 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 24 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 54 21 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 24 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 49 27 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 25 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 26 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 32 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 21 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 23 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 27 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 24 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 21 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 46 19 47 23 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 45 19 47 22 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 51 19 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 51 26 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 23 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 53 21 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 54 24 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 56 25 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 54 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 28 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 57 24 55 25 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 24 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 57 26 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 55 31 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...35-Delizio