652 
FXUS63 KGLD 011700
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

Nighttime microphysics and the Viaero webcams in Cheyenne Wells,
Colorado show that some fog has developed across portions of
Cheyenne county Colorado so have added patchy fog into the
forecast through mid morning as the boundary layer should become
less saturated as dew point depressions increase. The other update
that has been made is to add flurries into the forecast for the
next few hours in NW portions of the area. A weak shortwave and
and a surface low located along the Palmer Divide look to be the
source for lift to account for the flurry potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Morning)
Issued at 157 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

Upper level trough is swinging through the area bringing widespread 
clouds and precip to central and eastern Kansas. At the surface a 
ridge axis is nudging into the area. Along this axis winds are light 
and variable. Guidance has backed off on fog potential including 
the 00Z HREF probabilities which now shows 10% of visibilities 
less than 4SM vs the 40% that was noticed earlier this morning. 
Don't want to completely rule out the fog potential but confidence
has waned, even though typical conditions are favorable. If fog 
were to form it would favor eastern Colorado where the lightest 
winds and smallest dew point depressions lie. Due to very low 
confidence in formation will leave out of the forecast for now but
will monitor through the remainder of the night. 

The story of the short term period will be numerous systems moving 
across the area, unfortunately they look mostly dry. Starting 
today the system that will be the main weather maker for the day 
is currently crossing the Rockies. Clouds will be on the increase 
around sunrise and moving west to east through the day before 
clearing out during the late afternoon. High temperatures are 
currently forecast to be similar to what they were on Thursday in 
the upper 30s to low 40s area wide. The clearing will be short 
lived as the next trough moves towards the Plains. This one does 
look to have a bit more moisture to work with it. Snow 
showers/flurries are forecast to move into western portions of Kit
Carson and Yuma counties during the mid evening hours. A light 
dusting of snow is currently forecast with this activity. Some 
guidance is also showing fog potential again across southern 
portions of the area into Saturday AM. For this package will hold 
off on introducing into the forecast at this time due to 
fluctuations in location and if it will even affect the CWA.

This system does appear to have bit more low level lift with it as 
it moves in closer proximity to the region, overall upper level lift 
however is fair weak as the main wave resides across the Oklahoma 
Panhandle. Guidance is really struggling with precipitation 
location and coverage however as they has been notable changes 
from run to run and model to model. Current thinking is that a 
fairly large coverage of flurries to light snow is possible before
changing to a rain/snow mix as it moves to the east is most 
likely, so went ahead with a large area of slight chance pops. 
High temperatures do look to be a little warmer than previous days
as some weak surface troughing moves across the area pushing 
clouds and moisture out of the area. As clouds move out winds will
become breezy for a few hours especially across the west with 
gusts up to 35 mph.

Sunday, troughing will continue to be present. The main feature to 
watch will be a developing surface low across Nebraska. From a 
pattern recognition standpoint this is a classic gusty wind pattern 
and guidance is picking up on this as well. Winds will be from the 
NW at 20-30 mph gusting around 45 mph. There is some potential that 
wind gusts may be stronger as potent quick moving shortwave moves 
across the northern portion of the area. Some cloud cover may be 
present that would inhibit the mixing down of these stronger winds. 
Based on the current track of the trough and surface low locales 
along and north of I-70 looks to have the best potential at this 
time for the strongest winds. The 00Z run of the GFS also does hint 
at some potential for blowing dust across the northeast portion 
of the area; this area however did see snowfall within the past 
week so is the surface dry enough for dust to get lofted? All 
office dust research parameters are met except for the surface 
wind speeds being a little under preliminary findings, which again
may mitigate if dust can even get off the ground from the recent 
precipitation. Will hold off on any messaging on this until some 
consistence can be seen on upcoming runs of guidance. High 
temperatures for the day are currently forecast to be in the 
upper 40s to low 50s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) 
Issued at 145 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

Upper ridge will build from the west early in the week with the 
axis reaching the central plains on Wednesday. Late in the week,
will transition to more of a zonal flow as the ridge flattens and
several weak, fast moving waves move across the CONUS. This
pattern will feature above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Highs will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s, with perhaps a
few lower 70s on Wednesday with southwesterly surface winds.
Relative humidity minimums on both Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons will approach 20 percent, but with light winds both
days it would result only in marginally elevated fire weather
conditions. Otherwise, no hazards anticipated in the long term
period. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Dec 1 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southerly
wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the southwest at
similar speeds by 09z, west around 15z and northwest around 10kts
by 17z. There is a chance of snow showers near/over the terminal
in the 06z-15z timeframe. Its possible that visibilities could be
reduced below VFR category but at this time will only mention vcsh
as specifics as to whether the terminal is directly impacted are
somewhat questionable. 

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period with light
and variable winds. There is a chance of snow showers near/over
the terminal after 12z. Its possible that visibilities could be
reduced below VFR category but at this time will only mention
vcsh. 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99