935 
FXUS64 KTSA 301618
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1018 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1008 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Showers are expected to become more widespread across eastern 
Oklahoma and western Arkansas later this morning and into the 
afternoon hours as the mid-level shortwave currently over 
New Mexico moves east over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. 
There will be adequate elevated instability for scattered
thunderstorms to develop within the larger area of showers 
this afternoon. A few of these storms could become strong
to marginally severe across southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon
and early evening. Hail to the size of quarters will be the primary
concern. Have made some minor adjustments to the forecast for 
today to better reflect current trends. 


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Precipitation is expected to end across far northern Oklahoma
overnight as the upper low pulls away from the area. A trailing
shortwave on the heels of the stronger system will help keep 
cloud cover in place much of the day Friday as a cooler airmass
works into the region behind a front. Temperatures will struggle
to get out of the 40s across portions of northeast Oklahoma where
clouds linger longest with more widespread 50s across the 
remainder of the area. A series of weak shortwaves within a 
broader trough moving across the central and easter portion of the
country will bring rounds of mid and high level clouds through 
the weekend with occasional dry frontal passages. The latest 
blended guidance held onto low (20% or less) rain chances with the
first system Saturday evening mostly across western Arkansas 
where some deeper moisture remains. Otherwise, a dry forecast is 
expected through the next seven days with temperatures modulated
by the weak fronts. The upper pattern remains progressive with a
ridge building into the area by the middle part of next with
temperatures expected to rebound well into the 60s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Flying conditions will deteriorate through the day today into this
evening, with LIFR conditions likely by around sunset. Shower
coverage will increase with time, especially this afternoon and 
evening, and a few thunderstorms may also occur. Precipitation 
will end by around midnight, and some slight improvement in 
conditions may occur after that time, especially at KMLC. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  42  49  33 /  80  90   0   0 
FSM   55  47  57  37 /  90  90   0   0 
MLC   58  42  56  36 /  80  70   0   0 
BVO   56  37  47  27 /  80  90   0   0 
FYV   54  43  55  31 /  90  90  10   0 
BYV   53  48  55  36 /  90 100  10   0 
MKO   54  43  51  33 /  90  90   0   0 
MIO   54  42  52  30 /  70  90  10   0 
F10   55  41  51  33 /  80  80   0   0 
HHW   59  45  59  38 /  90  80   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05