665 
FXUS64 KMOB 301123
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
523 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the forecast area through tonight.
Broken to overcast high level clouds continue to build in across
the area while surface winds gradually shift from easterly around
5kts this morning to southeasterly by late this afternoon into 
the evening hours at 5 to 10kts. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

We go from cold and dry this morning/afternoon to a much warmer and 
wetter forecast tonight into Friday. Southwest to westerly flow 
aloft today becomes predominately southwesterly by Friday as a 
shortwave takes on a negative tilt and transits the ArkLaTex region. 
Strong warm air advection will be ongoing ahead of this allowing for 
the area to quickly warm from highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's 
today to highs in the lower to middle 70's by Friday. Likewise, 
expect a substantial increase in humidity as upper 60's to lower 
70's dewpoints work their way into the forecast area Friday. Morning 
temperatures Friday will be much warmer starting off in the upper 
40's to lower 50's inland and middle to upper 50's nearer the coast.

Friday will likely be an interesting weather day across the area as 
a transient shortwave embedded within the broader southwesterly flow 
aloft sparks off convection across the forecast area. Strong warm 
air advection will give us adequate low level instability to work 
with for thunderstorms. Adequate shear for organized convection will 
be in place across the area (around 50kts effective shear) and 
models generally agree on about 500 to 1,000j/kg of MLCAPE 
developing Friday afternoon. It seems reasonable that some strong to 
severe storms are possible on Friday, which is highlighted by the 
SPC convective outlook with a marginal risk for severe weather over 
the entire forecast area. There's a fair amount of uncertainty in 
the convective evolution, but overall the potential for a strong to 
damaging wind gust and/or a tornado are possible Friday.

The other story will be potential for heavy rainfall late Thursday 
night into Friday. Overall rainfall totals through Friday afternoon 
will likely range from a half inch to an inch, with locally upwards 
of two inches of rain. Some CAMs are enthused about a corridor of 
heavy rainfall across coastal counties of AL into the FL panhandle 
as the surface marine warm front gets hung up just onshore. If this 
were to happen, the potential would exist for some flash flooding in 
our urban areas where storms would be able to train over the same 
locations. Lastly, a high risk of rip currents will go into effect 
for tonight through at least Friday night, likely lingering into the 
short and early extended periods. MM/25

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

The frontal boundary will stall over the region as it becomes
parallel to the upper level southwesterly flow with rain chances 
remaining high through the period. Several waves of rain are 
possible on and off through the period. Some heavy rain is 
possible with the higher totals east of I-65 and along the coast. 
An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out on Saturday and SPC 
has issued a marginal risk for severe storms. High temps on
Saturday will be in the low 70s with lows in the low to mid 60s.
/13

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A strong shortwave will move across the Ohio Valley Sunday into 
Monday, carving out a large trough over the eastern states that
will finally shove the stalled front eastward. This will push the
higher precipitable water values eastward Sunday afternoon with a
drier airmass filtering into the region through midweek as sfc
high pressure builds across the southeast. Highs on Sunday will be
in the upper 60s and low 70s with low to mid 60s on Tuesday and 
Wednesday. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow returns today, 
potentially becoming strong well offshore tonight into Friday. A 
Small Craft Advisory goes into effect this evening for the 20 to 60 
nautical mile marine waters and lasts through Friday morning. 
Moderate onshore flow persists into the weekend before becoming 
offshore Sunday night into Monday in the wake of a cold front. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  58  76  64  74  63  71  51 /  10  70  90  80  90  70  50  30 
Pensacola   67  60  76  66  73  66  71  55 /  10  60  90  80  90  70  70  30 
Destin      66  59  75  67  75  67  74  57 /  10  40  90  90  90  70  70  40 
Evergreen   60  49  74  62  74  61  71  48 /   0  60  90  80 100  70  60  30 
Waynesboro  61  53  75  61  72  60  69  47 /  10  80  70  80  90  60  30  20 
Camden      59  50  73  60  71  59  68  48 /   0  70  80  80  90  70  50  30 
Crestview   61  50  75  63  74  62  72  50 /   0  50  90  90  90  70  70  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday 
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday 
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday 
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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