943 
FXUS63 KMKX 231036
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
436 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 436 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023)

Today through Friday:

Sunny, breezy, dry and cold for Thanksgiving. The air may have 
some bite to it as we'll be in the wake of a cold front that is 
currently moving southeast of the area, and cold advection will be
occuring. Overnight lows will tank, with lows in the mid teens to
around 20 expected.

Tomorrow, winds will persist before easing in the afternoon as an area
of strong high pressure moves into the upper midwest. Highs will 
be in the low 30s with continued dry and sunny conditions.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 436 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023)

Friday night through Wednesday:

The strong high pressure over Iowa will elongate and weaken over
the eastern Corn Belt through Friday night and into Saturday.
Clouds will increase over the region Saturday as a baroclinic 
zone sets up over the Ohio River Valley. We'll remain dry through
Saturday, but by the early morning hours on Sunday, precipitation
is expected to arrive as a result of a subtropical shortwave. This
shortwave should move through the area ahead of an advancing cold
front in association with a northern wave tied to the polar jet.
All in all, it doesn't seem like these two systems phase properly,
limiting the overall potency of the snow we'll see Sunday morning.
Right now QPF looks low and the snow may be more showery in
nature, limiting overall impacts.

Beyond, dry weather returns as high pressure moves back into the
area and lingers through Wednesday. Overall the extended will be
on the colder side, with highs ranging from near 30 to the mid 
30s.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 348 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023)

VFR conditions are expected to persist through today for inland
terminals. Some MVFR clouds over Lake Michigan may move close to 
lakeshore TAF sites in the wake of a cold front this morning, but
model coverage is spotty, and the clouds may only cause SCT MVFR
conditions briefly during the late morning. 

Winds will be breezy, primarily during the mid to late morning
following the cold front. North to northwest gusts to 20 knots can
be expected for a few hours before noon, then winds will ease
slightly going into the afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 348 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023)

A cold front in association with low pressure of 29.7 inches near
Sault Ste. Marie Michigan is currently working southeast and will
clear the southern end of Lake Michigan during the early morning
hours and west winds currently over the lake should come around to
northwesterly. Cold air advection behind the front should cause a
period of breezy northwest winds over the lake today into Friday
morning. While Gales are not expected some gusts from 20 to 25
knots will be common over portions of the open waters.

While winds will not reach small craft advisory criteria in the
nearshore waters, north to northwest fetch will drive high waves
from 4 to 5 feet at and around Wind Point late this morning and
through the afternoon. A small craft advisory has been issued.

Winds should then ease Friday evening as a strong high pressure of
30.6 inches moves into the upper Great Lakes region. Winds will
come around to westerly as the high lingers into Saturday.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Thursday to 6 PM 
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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