239 
FXUS62 KJAX 170012
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
712 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

Light to moderate showers will continue to overspread the 
northeast FL terminals early this evening, with ceilings expected 
to deteriorate to IFR before midnight. Rainfall will be 
occasionally heavier at GNV and SGJ, where periods of IFR 
visibilities will be possible through around 09Z. IFR ceilings may
continue at SSI, where occasional light rain is expected 
overnight. Occasional showers may linger at the Duval County 
terminals and SGJ on Friday morning, with IFR ceilings continuing 
at all area terminals into the early afternoon hours. Showers will
end shortly after noon at the northeast FL terminals, but 
ceilings will be slow to improve, especially at the coastal 
terminals, where ceilings may not reach MVFR until around 21Z. VFR
ceilings will be possible at GNV after 22Z Friday. East- 
northeasterly surface winds sustained at 10-15 knots at SGJ will 
likely strengthen to around 15 knots and gusty after 02Z through 
around 09Z before briefly diminishing back to the 10-15 knot range
before sunrise. Northeasterly surface winds elsewhere of 5-10 
knots should also increase to 10-15 knots overnight before briefly
diminishing during the predawn hours. Surface winds will then 
shift to north- northeasterly after sunrise on Friday, with 
sustained speeds around 10 knots, except around 15 knots at SGJ. 
Speeds will diminish to 5-10 knots at the regional terminals after
21Z Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today-Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

Bands of showers will continue to move onshore across northeast 
Florida and southeast Georgia, with a slow clearing trend over 
southeast Georgia this evening. Scattered showers will linger over
northeast Florida and the Georgia coast overnight, along with 
gusty winds on the coast. Some of these rain bands may produce 
locally heavy rainfall that will reduce visibility at times. An 
isolated thunderstorm was able to develop near Orange Springs this
afternoon, and there remains a slight chance of thunderstorms at 
this time, mainly over Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties 
through this evening. Overcast skies and high moisture overnight 
will keep low temperatures mild, staying above 60 degrees area- 
wide. Some patchy fog may be able to develop in our western 
Georgia/Florida counties pre-dawn, although winds generally above 
5 knots will limit any significant coverage. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

Non-tropical low pressure system will be moving northeast of the Bahamas
on Friday and track northeast off the east coast of the CONUS. Wrap
around moisture and northeasterly flow expected on Friday with 
lingering showers mainly over the eastern zones through midday but
should be shifting further offshore by the afternoon time frame. 
We have considerable cloudiness through the morning (with patchy
fog possible early west zones) and early afternoon but may see 
some breaks in the late aftn. Lighter winds, potential for more 
insolation and less rain chances in the afternoon will support 
highs temps reaching the 70s most areas, but potential for a bit 
lower highs if clouds are stubborn to lift. Friday night and 
Saturday, deep layer moisture will quickly move out of the area 
with increased subsidence and drier conditions on low level 
northwesterly flow. Slightly cooler on some weak cool advection 
but temps only in the 50s Friday night and highs on Saturday in 
the 70s again. Should see more cooling by Saturday night as clouds
further disperse and winds become light and high pressure attempts
to build in from the north. Lows more so in the lower 50s. There 
may be possibility of patchy fog again Saturday morning and Sunday
morning, especially fog prone locales, but too much uncertainty 
to place in the forecast at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

A weak trough will be oriented northwest to southeast over the
area Sunday, and a high pressure will be across the Carolinas and
TN valley. The trough will bring a few clouds but otherwise dry 
weather continues from Saturday. The high pressure system will 
move off to the northeast Sunday night into Monday as low pressure
system and cold front drop into the southern U.S. Our low level 
flow will begin to turn to the southeast in response providing a 
warm advection pattern starting on Monday. Could see a few showers
near the coast due to low level convergence but the main threat 
of the next rainfall will be on Tuesday through Wednesday as the 
frontal system moves in our area. The potential for a few thunderstorms
exist late Tuesday into Wednesday morning but at present the 
instability looks fairly weak in both the latest GFS and ECMWF. 
The cold front looks to push southeast of the area Wednesday and 
drier and cooler air arrives by Thanksgiving. Temps will be above 
normal Sunday to Tuesday, with a few spots within a few degrees of
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Below normal temps are forecast 
for Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

Dangerous boating conditions continue through Friday night. A low
off the southeastern Florida coast will start to lift northward 
today, continuing Gales across the Florida coastal waters through 
tonight with gusts up to 35 kts, then followed by a Small Craft
Advisory for the NE FL waters. Further north in the southeast 
Georgia waters, Small Craft Advisory will also continue. Lingering
seas will require continuation of Small Craft Advisory headlines 
across all waters through at least Saturday morning.

Behind the low, a weak cold front will push across the waters 
this weekend with high pressure building in from the north then to
the northeast on Monday. Another more robust front will approach 
from the west Tuesday and is expected to pass across the waters 
during the first half of the day Wednesday. There will be a 
scattered line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the 
passing front. Prefrontal and post frontal winds may require 
another Small Craft Advisory headline Tuesday and Wednesday next 
week.

Rip Currents: Life threatening rip currents and surf expected
through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

The Coastal Flood Advisory for the NE FL coast, ICWW, and St.
Johns river basin currently ends early Friday morning, most sites
have not reached minor flood stage during high tide today.
Confidence was not high enough to extend the advisory at this
time, although this will be reconsidered tonight as we expect
tides to become trapped in the St. Johns river basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  76  59  77 /  10  10   0   0 
SSI  63  74  60  76 /  20  30   0   0 
JAX  64  76  59  78 /  30  30   0   0 
SGJ  66  75  61  76 /  50  40   0   0 
GNV  64  77  59  78 /  30  20   0   0 
OCF  65  79  60  78 /  50  20   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for FLZ033-124-125-
     132-133-137-138-225-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450-470.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ452-454-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for 
     AMZ452-454-472-474.

&&

$$