657 
FXUS65 KBOU 121640
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
940 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Decreasing winds over the higher mountains today.

-  Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through late next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023

The forecast remain on track for a quiet weather day. Southeast
winds across the plains should keep high temperatures from getting
above forecast values. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 414 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023

Northwest winds aloft will decrease and then become southwest
tonight. Warm advection aloft will continue and dry air will mean
almost no clouds today. Both today's highs and tonight's lows
should be a couple degrees warmer, in line with the current
forecast. Only changes are tweaks to tonight's lows and even fewer
clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 414 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023

A ridge pattern aloft prevail across northeastern Colorado Monday. 
This will lead to weak southwesterly flow and drier air entering the 
mid-levels. Mostly clear skies are expect Monday for the mountains 
and plains. Temperatures increase near the mid to upper 60s for the 
plains and mid 40s to low 50s for the mountains. Tuesday, partly 
cloudy skies are possible for northeastern Colorado. Temperatures 
remain fairly similar trending above normal once more. Another warm 
and dry day arrives Wednesday.  As an upper level trough passes 
through the Canada, weak frontogenesis values increase and 700mb 
temperatures begin to decrease across quite a few solutions 
starting Thursday evening. As this weak shortwave exits, westerly 
flow and increasing mid-level moisture could lead to isolated 
rain snow showers mainly for areas above 10k ft. Uncertainty 
lingers for the next system entering late Friday through next 
weekend; 500mb relative humidities indicate this system could slow
its progress thus arriving later into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 332 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023

VFR through tonight. Southwest winds will become southeast around
17z, with speeds under 12 knots, then southwest again around 03z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2023

Low humidities and afternoon breezes will push most areas to near
critical fire weather conditions for a few hours this afternoon. 

Elevated fire weather conditions could occur across the eastern
plains Monday afternoon due to low humidities near 15-20 percent
and wind gusts up to 20-25 mph. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...AD/Gimmestad