313 
FXUS62 KFFC 111748
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1248 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023

Old frontal boundary has made it to far south GA. High pressure is 
centered over the Middle Atlantic with a wedge beginning to build in 
from the northeast. The wedge should remain in place for the 
remainder of the short term period. 

SW flow aloft will turn more zonal through Sunday. Several 
shortwaves are progged to move east in the flow. Each one of the 
waves will provide some lift for the development of rain. Several 
rounds are anticipated through the day on Sunday. 

Overall, most areas should receive half an inch or less of rainfall. 
However, the corridor between I-20 and MCN/CSG should be where the 
heavier axis sets up. Around an inch of rainfall is possible in this 
region.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2023

As rain tapers off Sunday evening, the upper level flow becomes 
zonal while a weak wedge becomes established along the eastern 
Appalachians as a result of high pressure shifting eastward over New 
England. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s with areas in 
the north Georgia mountains dipping into the 30s. Monday is forecast 
to be dry and warm (daytime temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 
60s) as ridging aloft builds in over the forecast area while a 
deeply amplified 500mb trough develops over the southern Plains. As 
this wave deepens, a surface low will develop in response over the 
north Gulf of Mexico and will be the next weather maker for the 
forecast area by midweek. As the trough progresses east, a cut off 
low develops and the surface low over the Gulf will bring in 
moisture across the southeast. Showers of rain will approach from 
the southwest and spread northeastward beginning early Tuesday. 
Showers will stick with us through Thursday as the trough passes 
overhead with a wedge of high pressure in place. Showers produced by 
isentropic lift are expected to remain relatively light to moderate. 

The biggest change with this forecast cycle is that QPF has 
increased, where much of the forecast area is progged to see a range 
from 1.0-2.25" with the highest amounts in the Columbus area. 
Unfortunately, areas across far north Georgia (northwest Georgia in 
particular) suffering from extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) are 
looking to squeeze out less rainfall with this system than other 
locations, progged at 0.5-0.75". While any rainfall is welcome in 
these locations, this is not expected to replenish streams or soils 
enough to significantly alleviate ongoing drought conditions. Will 
continue to monitor future forecast cycles to assess the evolution 
of QPF with the system track. 

Temperatures generally in the 60s areawide Tuesday will trend cooler 
in the upper 50s and low 60s on Wednesday and Thursday for locations 
north of a line from Columbus to Macon within the wedge. 
Temperatures outside of the wedge will be running the upper 60s to 
low 70s. High temperatures bounce back to well above normal by 
Friday in the upper 60s and mid 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 
30s to mid 40s at the beginning of the period will gradually warm 
throughout the period into the upper 40s and upper 50s.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023

IFR conditions continue across the area and are expected to stick
around through tomorrow morning as showers continue. Showers are 
diminishing slightly now but are expected to pick up again this 
evening and overnight. Finally expecting some improvement to MVFR 
by the later half of the TAF period around 14z tomorrow morning. 
Winds stay out of the east with gusts up to 20kts possible 
through this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  56  41  63 /  70  70  10   0 
Atlanta         49  55  46  62 /  70  70  10   0 
Blairsville     44  59  38  64 /  30  30   0   0 
Cartersville    47  60  43  65 /  50  40  10   0 
Columbus        52  60  50  64 /  70  70   0  10 
Gainesville     48  57  44  63 /  60  60  10   0 
Macon           50  57  47  64 /  70  70   0   0 
Rome            49  62  43  68 /  30  30   0   0 
Peachtree City  48  56  44  62 /  70  70  10   0 
Vidalia         52  58  50  65 /  40  50   0  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...Hernandez