National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTSA
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC Found 2 products at the given pil and timestamp. Scroll down to see them all.
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA
Product Timestamp: 2023-11-02 01:01 UTC
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095 FXUS64 KTSA 020100 RRA AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 801 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 801 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Quiet weather will prevail through the overnight hours with light southerly winds and mostly clear skies. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s. No additional updates are planned this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Low-level warm advection will increase through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, with surface ridging centered across the eastern CONUS. Southerly winds will become breezy and gusty each afternoon, especially this weekend when wind gusts around 30-35 mph will be possible. Temperatures are forecast to warm back up to near seasonal normal (highs in the mid-upper 60s/lows in the low-mid 40s) on Friday/Friday night, then rise above average this weekend with widespread highs in the 70s both on Sunday and Monday. A zonal mid-level pattern will develop over much of the central/south-central CONUS late this week, through the weekend, and persist into next week. However, models indicate a weak shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains/Upper Midwest Saturday into Saturday night. Majority of the lift/vorticity associated with the shortwave will stay north and east of the CWA, but there is about a 10% chance of a passing isolated shower for portions of far northeast OK and far northwest AR late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the trough axis slides by. Forecast uncertainty increases after the upcoming weekend. Despite the stagnant zonal flow aloft continuing, models/ensembles show a frontal boundary pushing into eastern OK on Monday morning. Latest suite of model data suggest the frontal boundary will slow down and/or stall across southeast OK/northwest AR sometime Monday afternoon or evening. The front oscillates and meanders across southeast OK through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday as well. Moisture and instability still look to be marginal at this time. Best chances of rain (20-30%) and an isolated thunderstorm (10-20% chance) are expected occur across far eastern OK and northwest AR on Monday and Monday night along the frontal boundary. However, precip coverage and probabilities may change over the next few days as newer model data comes in. Meanwhile, temperatures behind the front won't drop drastically as they did this past cold front. Instead, temps will drop closer to seasonal averages, with highs generally in the mid-upper 60s and lows generally in the mid-upper 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will gust to over 20 knots at times Thursday at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 33 61 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 29 62 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 31 61 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 28 62 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 29 59 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 31 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 30 59 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 31 59 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 31 60 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 29 59 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...20
044 FXUS64 KTSA 020100 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 801 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 801 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Quiet weather will prevail through the overnight hours with light southerly winds and mostly clear skies. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s. No additional updates are planned this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 Low-level warm advection will increase through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, with surface ridging centered across the eastern CONUS. Southerly winds will become breezy and gusty each afternoon, especially this weekend when wind gusts around 30-35 mph will be possible. Temperatures are forecast to warm back up to near seasonal normal (highs in the mid-upper 60s/lows in the low-mid 40s) on Friday/Friday night, then rise above average this weekend with widespread highs in the 70s both on Sunday and Monday. A zonal mid-level pattern will develop over much of the central/south-central CONUS late this week, through the weekend, and persist into next week. However, models indicate a weak shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains/Upper Midwest Saturday into Saturday night. Majority of the lift/vorticity associated with the shortwave will stay north and east of the CWA, but there is about a 10% chance of a passing isolated shower for portions of far northeast OK and far northwest AR late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the trough axis slides by. Forecast uncertainty increases after the upcoming weekend. Despite the stagnant zonal flow aloft continuing, models/ensembles show a frontal boundary pushing into eastern OK on Monday morning. Latest suite of model data suggest the frontal boundary will slow down and/or stall across southeast OK/northwest AR sometime Monday afternoon or evening. The front oscillates and meanders across southeast OK through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday as well. Moisture and instability still look to be marginal at this time. Best chances of rain (20-30%) and an isolated thunderstorm (10-20% chance) are expected occur across far eastern OK and northwest AR on Monday and Monday night along the frontal boundary. However, precip coverage and probabilities may change over the next few days as newer model data comes in. Meanwhile, temperatures behind the front won't drop drastically as they did this past cold front. Instead, temps will drop closer to seasonal averages, with highs generally in the mid-upper 60s and lows generally in the mid-upper 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South winds will gust to over 20 knots at times Thursday at the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 33 61 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 29 62 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 31 61 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 28 62 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 29 59 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 31 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 30 59 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 31 59 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 31 60 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 29 59 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...20