AFOS product AFDLZK
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLZK
Product Timestamp: 2023-10-20 05:15 UTC

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FXUS64 KLZK 200515
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

H500 trough will continue to shift east of the area with mid- 
level ridging rapidly building in its wake. While a cold front 
continues to shift east of the area, little in the way of cool 
temperatures is expected locally.

Td values in the 40s F will be fairly widespread through the short
term. This will aid high temperatures warming to around 10 
degrees above seasonal average. While overnight lows will still be
above normal, readings will remain fairly comfortable given the
dry air in place.

Gusty winds in place across the state this afternoon will relax
overnight. Could see some occasional gusts across northeast
Arkansas to around 15-20 mph on Friday, but overall speeds should
be lower than today. Some elevated fire wx concerns may exist on
Friday given the dry air in place. Min RH values should bottom out 
in the 20-30 percent range across much of the state, but sfc 
winds shouldn't be out of hand.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

A cold front will be moving across the state from north to south 
Sat/Sun. This front is not expected to produce much rainfall, if any 
at all, as forecast PWAT values range from 0.75 to 0.90 (below/near 
the climatological average) and ridging aloft will be approaching 
the forecast area from the west. 

Northerly surface flow will shift to become easterly by Sunday 
afternoon, and more southerly by Monday afternoon, as the surface 
high pressure center shifts from the Midwest region eastward to the 
east coast through early next week. 

An upper low and trough will dig across the SW region of the U.S. 
through the middle of next week, and an elongated area of surface 
low pressure will develop from the SW region into the central 
states. The pressure gradient will increase against the high over 
much of the eastern states, increasing winds across the forecast 
area. Wind gusts up to 20 knots are forecast across west and north 
AR Mon afternoon, and across much of the CWA Tues afternoon through 
the end of next week.

Low-level southerly flow will transport Gulf moisture across south-
central and the central states through next week. Rain chances 
increase across these areas next week with plenty of low-level 
moisture below the approaching upper low/trough, as well as the 
warmer air gradually lifting over the cooler air which will have 
been in place earlier in the week. Rain is forecast across our far 
western counties by Tuesday afternoon, spreading across much of the 
CWA by late Wednesday, continuing through the end of the period. 

Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s next week, with low 
temperatures gradually warming through the period, from the 40s/50s 
Sunday morning to the 50s/lower 60s Wednesday through late next 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023

VFR conds will prevail through the entire period. Skies should be
clear over the next 24 hours and other than some AM patchy FG 
near KADF, no impactful weather is anticipated. Light winds will 
be noted overnight, become NWrly on Friday with gusts between 10 
and 20 knots. Winds will be calm or light and variable Friday 
evening/night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  54  82  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden AR         84  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Harrison AR       75  52  77  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Hot Springs AR    84  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Little Rock   AR  83  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Monticello AR     85  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Mount Ida AR      83  53  84  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Mountain Home AR  76  51  77  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Newport AR        79  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     84  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Russellville AR   83  49  85  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Searcy AR         81  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      82  50  85  53 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...70