National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLZK
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDLZK
Product Timestamp: 2023-10-20 05:15 UTC
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281 FXUS64 KLZK 200515 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 H500 trough will continue to shift east of the area with mid- level ridging rapidly building in its wake. While a cold front continues to shift east of the area, little in the way of cool temperatures is expected locally. Td values in the 40s F will be fairly widespread through the short term. This will aid high temperatures warming to around 10 degrees above seasonal average. While overnight lows will still be above normal, readings will remain fairly comfortable given the dry air in place. Gusty winds in place across the state this afternoon will relax overnight. Could see some occasional gusts across northeast Arkansas to around 15-20 mph on Friday, but overall speeds should be lower than today. Some elevated fire wx concerns may exist on Friday given the dry air in place. Min RH values should bottom out in the 20-30 percent range across much of the state, but sfc winds shouldn't be out of hand. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 A cold front will be moving across the state from north to south Sat/Sun. This front is not expected to produce much rainfall, if any at all, as forecast PWAT values range from 0.75 to 0.90 (below/near the climatological average) and ridging aloft will be approaching the forecast area from the west. Northerly surface flow will shift to become easterly by Sunday afternoon, and more southerly by Monday afternoon, as the surface high pressure center shifts from the Midwest region eastward to the east coast through early next week. An upper low and trough will dig across the SW region of the U.S. through the middle of next week, and an elongated area of surface low pressure will develop from the SW region into the central states. The pressure gradient will increase against the high over much of the eastern states, increasing winds across the forecast area. Wind gusts up to 20 knots are forecast across west and north AR Mon afternoon, and across much of the CWA Tues afternoon through the end of next week. Low-level southerly flow will transport Gulf moisture across south- central and the central states through next week. Rain chances increase across these areas next week with plenty of low-level moisture below the approaching upper low/trough, as well as the warmer air gradually lifting over the cooler air which will have been in place earlier in the week. Rain is forecast across our far western counties by Tuesday afternoon, spreading across much of the CWA by late Wednesday, continuing through the end of the period. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s next week, with low temperatures gradually warming through the period, from the 40s/50s Sunday morning to the 50s/lower 60s Wednesday through late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023 VFR conds will prevail through the entire period. Skies should be clear over the next 24 hours and other than some AM patchy FG near KADF, no impactful weather is anticipated. Light winds will be noted overnight, become NWrly on Friday with gusts between 10 and 20 knots. Winds will be calm or light and variable Friday evening/night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 79 54 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 84 50 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 75 52 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 84 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 83 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 85 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 83 53 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 76 51 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 79 49 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 84 51 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 83 49 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 81 49 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 82 50 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...70