205 
FXUS63 KAPX 141518
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1118 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

Current forecast remains on track with ongoing scattered lake effect 
rain showers across northern lower Michigan. For further details, 
please see the near term discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

1004mb low pressure is moving east across northern IL and central
IN. Northern MI, north of the low, is seeing increasingly brisk
e to ne winds. The associated rain mainly impacted places near 
and south of M-72. That rain swath has been deteriorating with 
time into showers, as better forcing and moisture head east with 
the parent system. Clouds are extensive in northern lower MI, but 
there are some breaks in the UP, especially in western Chip Co.

Precip coverage will continue to diminish during the pre-dawn
hours, as forcing wanes further. Once past daybreak, the highest
pops will be confined to Gladwin/Arenac Cos, with a much smaller
chance for showers extending n and nw toward M-72. However,
inversion heights are relatively high, especially in northern
lower MI (near 750mb/7k ft). With diurnal heating, convective
cloud depths may be deep enough to allow a few showers to
redevelop this afternoon. There is also a lake contribution to 
the available instability. CAMs tend to portray sct showers this 
afternoon and evening, primarily south of M-68 in northern lower 
MI. Expect considerably more clouds than not today across the 
area. Max temps low-mid 50s.

850mb temps hover around -1C tonight (they start to rebound on
Sunday). Upper troffing will be dropping south across the area
tonight, and moisture will increase late tonight in northern and
eastern areas. Nne to n 1000-850mb winds will favor coastal
sections of ne and nw lower MI with some lake effect rain showers,
with inversion heights hanging around 6k ft. A chance for showers
is placed in ne lower MI (near and s of Rogers), and in nw lower
MI (Gd Trav Bay down to MBL). Again more clouds than not; there
may be a period tonight where eastern upper MI manages some
partial clearing, but clouds will increase again late. Lows upper
30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal.

Upper troffing over NY will close off and move southward toward VA. 
Ridging aloft builds in the Rockies, and an upper high originally w 
of Hudson Bay folds over into northern Ontario. The main consequence 
of all the above is that 500mb heights over northern MI during this 
part of the forecast. At the surface, a couple of surface trofs will 
drop southward across the region, Sunday afternoon and evening. 
Otherwise, high pressure is entrenched across the US plains and 
Canadian prairies.

Even though n to ne low-level flow will be maintained these periods, 
we are actually warm-advecting at 850mb thru most of it. Mid-level 
theta-e advection will act to moisten our air late on Sunday. Those 
northerly surface winds will maintain a shallow, coolish airmass 
(inversion heights around 875-900mb). This shallow and marginal 
instability is unlikely to generate precip on its own, nor is mid-
level moistening/warming that develops Sunday. But when combined... 
maybe we can get a few rain showers going. Eastern upper MI will be 
effectively downsloping thru this period, and no precip will be 
placed there. But the ne lower MI coastal counties, and nw lower MI 
from Gd Trav Bay west, will have a small chance of showers Sunday 
and Sunday night. Broader drying arrives Monday, and no precip is 
expected.

For Sunday, mostly cloudy skies are expected south of the bridge, 
with eastern upper MI seeing decreasing clouds in the afternoon. 
More aggressive clearing works into eastern upper and n central 
lower MI Sun night. Monday will see a flare-up of cu during the day, 
which tends to mix out during the afternoon.

Max temps Sunday near 50f to the lower 50s. Lows that night mid 30s 
to lower 40s. Near 50f to the mid 50s for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

High Impact Weather Potential... Minimal

Mid to upper level ridging will bring a couple days of high pressure 
and drier weather to the region this Tuesday and Wednesday. This low 
amplitude ridge will be pushed eastward as an upstream mid/upper 
level trough with a vertically stacked weakening low pressure system 
returns chances of more active weather as we head towards the second 
half of the work week. 

Conditions will start the forecast period relatively dry and sunny 
as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region, allowing 
temperatures to breifly return back to average for mid October 
(around 60 degrees). A trough progresses across the CONUS developing 
a small, vertically stacked cyclone lee of the Rockies. The system 
will begin to weaken as it approaches the region due to evidence of 
the jet axis aloft bifurcating, sending moisture to Northern Ontario 
and the Mid-Atlantic, leaving northern Michigan with weak flow 
aloft. Lingering moisture connected to this feature will produce 
some scattered showers Thursday and Friday, but no heavy 
precipitation is expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

Low pressure is passing south of MI today. Widespread rain earlier
at MBL/TVC has ended, though some light lake effect rain showers
remain possible today and tonight at APN/TVC/MBL. A mix of VFR and
MVFR cigs is expected at all sites. In particular, the best chance
for lower (MVFR) cigs is during the day today.

Ne winds will become more gusty by afternoon, and gradually back
to the north tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

Brisk n to ne winds will continue for another couple of days. Will
more fully evaluate marine headlines in a bit, but some small
craft advisories may need to extended. Winds will lighten up
somewhat on Monday and Monday night, as high pressure edges in
from the west.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ347>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJC
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ