960 
FXUS64 KEPZ 111118
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
518 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Breezy to windy conditions today and Thursday as a storm system
crosses the central Rockies. Winds up to 40 mph are expected for 
much of the area, with stronger gusts across eastern Otero County
overnight. Warm weather today will be followed by a brief cool
down on Friday. Dry, warm, and quiet weather expected this 
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Jet streak aloft over the central Rockies will be the focus today
and tomorrow, resulting in breezy to windy conditions across
southern New Mexico and far west Texas. 90-knot jet streak will
set up over northern New Mexico today, generating strong lee side
cyclogenesis at the surface of eastern Colorado. 985mb surface 
low and associated trough will extend south into New Mexico and 
west Texas this afternoon, promoting strong boundary layer mixing 
and thus breezy conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds 
generally 15 to 25 mph can be expected this evening across much of
the lowland zones, with stronger winds likely over the mountains.
WSW flow and clear skies will also promote efficient warming 
today, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

Tonight, mountain wave formation over the Sacramento/Guadalupe
chain will keep winds rather strong well into Thursday morning.
These look to be the strongest winds of this event, from midnight
through Thursday afternoon. Potent mountain wave activity will
allow stronger winds aloft to reach the surface early Thursday
morning, despite soundings depicting a stable inversion layer. 
Hi-res models are suggesting winds in excess of 50 mph reaching 
the surface along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains 
overnight, with potentially damaging gusts. This primarily affects
locations such as Mayhill, Weed, and Pinon in eastern Otero 
County. A Wind Advisory is in effect for those areas tonight.

Breezy west flow continues on Thursday, with temperatures closer
to seasonal averages (lowland highs in the lower-to-mid 80s) as
the jet ejects into the Midwest.

Much quieter weather this weekend with zonal flow promoting dry 
and warm conditions. Cool air intrusion behind the current storm 
system doesn't look to make much of a westward push into the area.
Thus, mild weather on Friday followed by a steady warmup. High 
pressure aloft off the Baja coast will divert the mid-latitude 
storm track further north next week, keeping our region dry and 
warm through the foreseeable future. No notable cold fronts to 
mention either, which is unusual for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Upper low moving into Central Rockies today, with a 90-knot jet
streak aloft over northern NM. Breezy winds at local terminals
this afternoon, generally 230-260 at 10 to 20 knots. Peak gusts
around 30 knots this evening. Mountain waves likely over
Sacramento/Black Range tonight, with strong winds along east
slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Elevated fire danger today and tomorrow as a storm system over the
central Rockies causes windy conditions this afternoon through
Thursday. West winds 20 to 30 mph after noon today, leading to 
Excellent smoke ventilation. Min RH 20-30% due to dry weather and
above normal temperatures. Mountain wave activity over the 
Sacramento/Guadalupe Mtns overnight, with continued gusts along 
east slopes.

Lighter winds Friday through the rest of the period, with winds
shifting back to the southeast over the weekend leading to Poor
smoke ventilation. Temperatures will remain at or above average 
for mid October with no precipitation or sudden wind shifts 
forecasted over the next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  64  87  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Sierra Blanca            83  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Cruces               87  56  81  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Alamogordo               84  57  81  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloudcroft               61  43  57  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Truth or Consequences    85  53  81  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Silver City              77  50  71  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Deming                   89  55  82  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Lordsburg                86  53  80  49 /   0   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro       88  62  85  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Dell City                88  58  84  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Hancock             90  58  87  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Loma Linda               80  57  77  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Fabens                   89  60  87  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Teresa             86  58  82  52 /   0   0   0   0 
White Sands HQ           87  60  82  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Jornada Range            85  55  81  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Hatch                    87  56  83  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus                 87  59  83  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande                84  54  80  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Mayhill                  73  51  70  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Mescalero                72  47  69  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Timberon                 70  45  66  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Winston                  76  44  73  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Hillsboro                83  51  79  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Spaceport                84  53  81  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts             75  42  70  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                   82  50  76  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Cliff                    85  45  79  41 /   0   0   0   0 
Mule Creek               79  47  73  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Faywood                  81  53  75  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Animas                   87  53  82  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                  85  55  81  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells           85  55  81  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale               80  52  76  49 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM MDT Thursday for 
     NMZ414>417.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt