298 
FXUS64 KAMA 101751
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For today and tonight, a surface trof of low pressure will begin
to deepen over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico, leading 
to an increase in south to southwest winds, gusty at times, by 
late this morning through the afternoon hours. Well above normal 
temperatures will continue as well. A minor upper level shortwave 
trof is forecast to track across the southern high plains late 
this afternoon and evening, and may result in the development of 
isolated, high based showers and thunderstorms. Highest confidence
is over the southwest and parts of the south central Texas 
Panhandle. However, given the expected rather sparse coverage 
should any showers or storms develop, have opted to use the 10 pop
rule for late this afternoon and evening across the southwest and
parts of the south central Texas Panhandle. Any precipitation 
that manages to form should diminish by around late evening with 
the loss of daytime heating as the disturbance begins to track 
eastward into western Oklahoma by 12Z Wednesday. 

For Wednesday and Wednesday night, the leeside surface trof deepens
further and the corresponding low level pressure gradient tightens
along with upper level height falls in response to a developing 
vigorous upper level low pressure system progged to track into the
WY/CO/NE region by 12Z Thursday. This synoptic pattern will translate
to breezy south to southwest winds, gusty at times, along with well
above normal temperatures and dry weather. Short range models are
in reasonable agreement with the overall scenario for today and
Wednesday and were accepted. 

02

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Cooler temps from some Canadian air will spill into the FA Friday
behind a cold front. First, have a few things to discuss for
Thursday. Breezy winds are expected both with the Canadian front 
early Fri but also ahead of that front Thu, behind a Pacific 
front. CAA advection associated with the Canadian front Friday
morning is expected to bring some chilly air with some areas in 
the northern FA possibly reaching freezing temperatures Sat 
morning and possibly again Sun morning. Moisture associated with
this next upper level system is expected to stay well north of the
area, so not expecting any precipitation in the long term. 

Thu an upper level low pressure system is expected to dive
southeast from the PacNW into northern Colorado. Then, will shoot
east into the Central Great Plains late Thu. The trough created 
by this low will bring H2 winds around 90 to 110 kts overhead to  
the combined Panhandles south of the lows center. This system is 
what will bring the CAA in early Fri. The orthogonal winds over 
the Rockies into the Great Plains will induce a leeside surface 
low somewhere over eastern CO into western KS early in the day on 
Thu. This will tighten the pressure gradient at the surface 
through day helping winds pick up to the 20 to 35 mph range in the
afternoon. Southwest winds will transition from the southwest to
westerly behind a Pacific front going into the afternoon as well. 
Subsidence from the left entrance region of the H5 jet will
introduce some low Td's, potentially in the teens, behind the
Pacific front. This Pacific front is expected to create a little
bit of a temperature gradient across the combined Panhandles, with
upper 70s to the west and 80s to the east. With these warm temps 
and low Tds especially in the southwest TX Panhandle, RH values 
are expected to drop to around 12 percent. If dewpoints end up 
lower than what is forecast now with the NBM, RH values in the 
single digits could potentially be realized. This will not be a 
good combination with the expected 20 to 35 mph winds driven by 
the pressure gradient, and a stacked jet helping gust reach 
upwards of 45 mph. The southwest TX Panhandle where the lowest RHs
and highest winds are expected, is also the place where fuels are
not in the greatest shape. This is leading to a concern for 
elevated if not critical fire weather conditions Thu afternoon. 

Winds will begin to shift to the north behind the Canadian front
in the far northern FA around sunset Thu. With the main brunt of 
the CAA coming well after midnight Fri morning, morning lows are 
expected to still be in the 40s for much of the area with the 
exception of the western Oklahoma Panhandle where upper 30s are
expected. Yesterday, it was looking like some stronger winds with
potentially 50 plus mph wind gusts were potentially going to be
behind this frontal passage. Now the surface, H85, and H7 low are
trending to be moving away from the area to the northeast, taking
the stronger low level winds with them. Still looking at 20 to 30
mph winds behind the front with gusts up to 45 mph possible though.
The higher winds will be in the eastern Panhandles. 

Daytime highs Fri are progged to be in the lower 60s across the 
northern half of the FA with mid to upper 60s across the southern 
half of the FA. As the low pressure system continues to move away 
going into Fri evening, winds will stay out of the north but will 
gradually decrease through the night. With the western areas of 
the combined Panhandles being displaced further from the overall 
system, winds are expected to drop well below 10 mph toward Sat 
morning. Combined that with the recent surge of cold air and clear
skies, radiational cooling is expected to help Sat morning lows 
fall to around or below freezing across western portions of the 
FA, mainly in the northwest toward Dalhart, Texline, and up into 
the western Oklahoma Panhandle. 

Sat, daytime highs are progged to be similar to Friday. With clear
skies and calm winds, a freeze, if not a frost, will be possible 
across the northern combined Panhandles going into Sunday morning.
Upper level ridging is expected to build back into the area 
Sunday with some daytime highs returning to the 70s Sun into Mon. 

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Winds
to start will be out of the south at 15-25 kts with gusts around
30 kts at times. Winds will then subside to 10-15 kts past 00Z
before ramping back up again to 15-25 kts sustained towards the
end of the TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are expected
today as RFTI values of zero are anticipated. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon into early evening across
at least parts of the western half of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles
due to twenty foot southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts
along with forecast minimum relative humidity values of 15 to 20 
percent and RFTI values of 1 to 2 expected. 

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  89  59  83 /  10   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  55  90  58  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Boise City OK              49  86  50  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Borger TX                  59  93  61  86 /  10   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              54  90  60  81 /  10   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  55  88  58  83 /  10   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               58  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 48  85  51  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  52  89  53  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Hereford TX                54  88  57  82 /  10   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                57  88  61  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Pampa TX                   57  87  60  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                58  87  62  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              59  87  63  91 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...29