713 
FXUS64 KTSA 080513
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1213 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 856 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023

Surface high pressure was centered over Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this evening with nearly calm winds observed.
At the same time...clear conditions combined with the light wind
were helping temps to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s over the CWA 
as of mid evening.

Overnight tonight...surface high pressure is progged to begin
sliding southward with the center closer to the Red
River/Northeast Texas. In response...the nearly calm winds will
begin to return out of the west to southwest across the northern
half of the CWA...with nearly calm winds continuing over Southeast
Oklahoma. 

With the high centered closer to Southeast Oklahoma tonight...temps
across the southern portion of the CWA look to be slightly cooler
tonight compared to last night. Meanwhile...temps for Northeast 
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas could be near to a degree or so 
warmer than last night with the surface high center farther south.
From these conditions...along with mostly clear skies and light 
winds...forecast low temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s still seem 
reasonable. Thus...for the evening update...have only added minor 
tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint trends to account for latest obs. 
The rest of the ongoing forecast looks to be handling well at this
time. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023

It'll be another clear and cool night tonight, with lows just a few 
degrees higher than this morning, generally upper 30s to mid 40s. 
The upper level low will shift east Sunday and upper level heights 
will begin to rise. At the same time, somewhat warmer southwesterly 
flow will resume on Sunday in the lower levels as the surface high
sinks to the south of the area. High temperatures will jump into 
the 70s with skies remaining clear.

A shortwave trough will dive into the northern Plains Monday which 
will tug the upper level low over the northeast back to the Great 
Lakes Region. A weak cold front will then slide through Monday 
morning, resulting in minimal cooling north of about I-40. High 
temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s north of I-40, with 
highs near 80F south of there. Skies will again remain clear for 
this period. 

A pattern reconfiguration will take place during the middle of next 
week as a strong Pacific trough barrels into the Pacific Northwest, 
forcing the anomalous high pressure into Canada. This system will 
quickly move southeastward into the central Plains, becoming our 
next weather maker. Initially, on Tuesday and Wednesday we will see 
breezy southerly winds resume, which will drive high temperatures 
back into the upper 70s to low 80s. Moist isentropic lift on
Wednesday days could result in some light showers, though model 
confidence is low at this time. Boosted NBM pops up to mentionable
levels. 

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a strong cold front will 
then move through on Thursday. There is some uncertainty with 
respect to the exact track of the surface low and when precipitation 
will develop along the cold front, but as of now confidence is good 
in at least some precipitation for much of the area, particularly in 
northwest AR. Behind the cold front, breezy northwest winds will 
develop. Additionally, much cooler air will spill in with high 
temperatures returning to the 60s by Friday and lows back into the 
low 40s. Longer range guidance keeps chilly northwest flow in place 
for several days (through the weekend) with little chance of 
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
southerly winds increasing during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   51  80  54  83 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   53  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   44  75  45  81 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   46  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   49  72  47  78 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   49  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   45  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   52  82  57  81 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07