444 
FXUS63 KMPX 071121
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES: 

- Well-below normal temperatures should last into early next week.

- Monday night looks to be the coldest across the area, with the best
  combination of light winds and clear skies. Many locations could 
  see a freeze Monday night.

Temperatures have been slow to cool this morning due to still breezy 
northwesterly winds and a band of clouds working through MN. Upper 
30s to lower 40s characterize central and eastern MN into western 
WI. Likewise, western MN (where the Frost Advisory is in effect) has 
struggled to reach the mid 30s spelling less than optimal "frosty" 
conditions. Today will be cool again with highs in the 50s. Mostly 
cloudy skies will prevail except across southwest MN where more sun 
is likely. An incoming shortwave tonight could bring some light 
precip across our east. Most CAMs show a quick moving north-to-south 
band of precip through western WI and forecast soundings have a 
deep, saturated mid-level layer. While lift is a bit questionable, 
have added some slight-chance PoPs to portions of west-central WI 
for Saturday night. Lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. 
Highs Sunday will increase a couple of degrees from Saturday due to 
less cloud cover (portions of southwestern MN look to reach 60). 
However, another shot of cold air arrives Sunday night cooling us to 
start the work week. Frost looks likely in our WI counties Sunday 
night as lows will near freezing. Meanwhile, a widespread freeze 
appears possible Monday night as the colder air mass envelopes the 
Great Lakes region.

Temperatures should remain below normal for the rest of next week 
with highs generally in the 50s. Lows will range in the mid 30s to 
lower 40s after Tuesday night. Chances for precipitation don't 
return until the latter half of next week as long-range guidance 
shows good agreement of a strong shortwave moving into the central 
CONUS. Surface low would likely develop ahead of the wave in the 
Central Plains, but what happens afterwards remains in question. The 
GEFS and Canadian ensembles favor a weaker, more progressive system 
that passes through the Midwest and keeps the precip shield mostly 
to our south. However, the EPS favors a stronger system that travels 
more poleward into the Great Lakes, clipping at least some of our 
region with the comma-head precip shield. Interestingly, the latest 
deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and GEM side more with the EPS. Trends 
will continue to be monitored as this looks to be our next good 
chance of rain within this overall drier pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023

VFR ceilings are expected this morning with a chance for some periods
of MVFR as seen at AXN this morning. By afternoon the low clouds will
dissipate with only mid to high level clouds with VFR expected for
the rest of the period. Winds will be much lighter today from the
north or west becoming light and variable tonight into Sunday
morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind E bcmg N 10-15 kts. 
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. 
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Brown-Chippewa-
     Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Meeker-Pope-Redwood-
     Renville-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.

WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...NDC