996 
FXUS64 KMAF 261030
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
530 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just off the coast of Baja 
del Sur, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest 
flow aloft.  At the surface, light easterly flow is advecting rich 
Gulf moisture into the area, w/60+F dewpoints as far west as 
Hudspeth County.  Easterly flow will keep a lid on temperatures 
today, similar to yesterday, if not a degree or two cooler in the 
south.  This afternoon, CAMs bring a shortwave into the region, 
which will combine w/upslope flow for a round of convection over the 
higher terrain. Models develop 0-6km shear of 30-40kts during the 
afternoon out west, coincident w/mid-level lapse rates of 7-8C/km. 
W/high LCLs and dcapes in excess of 1000J/km, both large hail and 
damaging winds will be possible. 

Wednesday, thicknesses increase, adding 2-3F to afternoon highs, 
around 7-9F above normal, w/most locations in the lower 90s.  Absent 
a shortwave like today's, afternoon convection will be confined to 
the mountains in weak upslope flow.  Forecast deep-layer shear is 
tepid, so the severe threat should be minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

We start off on Thursday with a subtropical ridge axis extending 
from Mexico into the central Plains. This pattern changes as we head 
into the weekend with the upper ridge setting up across the 
Mississippi Valley with a large upper trough digging into the 
western US. This places us in southwesterly flow aloft which we'll 
stay in through the beginning of next week. No fronts are expected 
through the long term, but as thickness gradually decreases as the 
period continues, a subtle cooling trend will take us from the low 
to mid 90s on Thursday to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday/Monday. 
Unfortunately, we'll remain with late-Summer-like temperatures
into at least early October until the first strong front of the 
Fall arrives...which could be a while at this point. 

As for precipitation chances, Thursday stays relatively tame outside 
of a stray storm or two over the Davis Mountains. Once southwesterly 
flow sets up, shortwaves moving through and ample low level moisture 
will support scattered thunderstorms each afternoon this weekend, 
primarily across the western high terrain.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread, low-based cu field by
noon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  67  92  67 /   0   0  10   0 
Carlsbad                 89  65  92  64 /  20  20  10  10 
Dryden                   92  69  92  67 /  10  10  10   0 
Fort Stockton            91  67  92  68 /  10  10  10   0 
Guadalupe Pass           83  62  84  64 /  40  30  10   0 
Hobbs                    87  64  89  64 /  20  20   0  10 
Marfa                    86  59  86  58 /  40  20  30  10 
Midland Intl Airport     89  68  91  68 /   0   0  10   0 
Odessa                   89  69  91  69 /   0   0  10   0 
Wink                     91  68  93  68 /  10  10   0  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44