198 
FXUS62 KGSP 222224
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
624 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will continue to ridge down across the area from 
the north through this evening. Meanwhile, Ophelia will continue to 
slowly push northward through tonight before pushing onshore the 
North Carolina coast early Saturday morning. Ophelia will continue 
on a northward track over eastern North Carolina Saturday afternoon 
and early evening. In Ophelia's wake, high pressure will return 
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 PM...Breezy NE winds are expected thru this evening,
the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia approaches eastern NC from
the south. No significant changes are needed with this update.

Otherwise, this storm will maintain gusty conditions across the
the eastern half or so of the FA thru the overnight. A little
stronger winds will develop across the ern zones aft 08z yet am not
anticipating gusts higher than the 30-35 mph range at most, so no
mention will be made in the HWO. Rainfall banding looks a little
more prolonged tonight than the previous fcst and some areas along
the I-77 corridor could see arnd an inch of rainfall. Not enuf for
sigfnt flooding concerns, but a few shallow urban streams arnd CLT
could rise quickly and produce dangerous flows thru daybreak. The
trop system will get lifted north of the area by an ulvl trof rather
quickly aft noon, so expect lowering precip coverage/amts as well
as a decrease in wind gusts Sat afternoon to more low-end values.

Min temps tonight will fall arnd or a little below normal, while
highs tomorrow will range from normal levels over the sw/rn zones
to abt 10 degrees below normal across the NW Piedmont due to ovc
conds and precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...Ophelia will continue on a northward track 
towards the southern Mid-Atlantic states Saturday evening into 
Sunday. The far northern tier of the forecast area could see 
lingering rain from the western side of Ophelia Saturday evening 
into early Saturday night, thus have chance PoPs in place across 
these zones. Have dry conditions in place across the CWA the rest of 
the short term as the southern periphery of Canadian high pressure 
nudges into the region. Temps will be a few degrees above climo 
through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...An upper low looks to gradually develop the 
first half of the long term before cutting off and gradually 
strengthening somewhere over the eastern CONUS. Global models 
continue to diverge on the exact placement and evolution of the 
upper low. At the sfc, the southwestern periphery of the Canadian 
high pressure will gradually build into the Southeast through the 
long term. This will allow NE'ly sfc winds to develop across the 
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, allowing weak CAD to 
develop. This pattern should allow rain chances to gradually ramp up 
Monday night through Wednesday, with rain chances lingering through 
the remainder of the workweek. Have chance PoPs through much of the 
period, with likely PoPs confined to the higher terrain on Wednesday 
afternoon. Lows will be a few to several degrees above climo and 
highs a few to several degrees below climo thanks to precip and 
cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low-end to moderate gusts will continue 
across the area this evening with the mtn sites beginning gusts a 
little later this afternoon or early evening. Continued ne/ly flow 
arnd an ern trop cyclone will maintain a mixed BL and no great 
chance of fog or VSBY issues overnight except across the sheltered 
sw/rn NC mtn valleys before daybreak. Expect some lowering of CIGS 
to MVFR before daybreak at KHKY and KCLT as precip banding moves in 
from the east. Also, MVFR/IFR CIGS are possible at KAVL a few hrs 
before daybreak, scattering out by 12z or so. Wind gusts will begin 
to lower in the afternoon at KCLT and back to nw/ly arnd 21z. 

Outlook: Mtn valley fog/low stratus will remain possible each 
morning thru early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SBK