911 
FXUS64 KMOB 161132
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
632 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

At issuance time, MVFR/IFR conditions were seen across portions of
interior south central Alabama as some patchy fog/low ceilings 
have developed early this morning. VFR conditions were seen
elsewhere. Any fog/stratus that did develop should dissipate
within the next couple of hours and VFR conditions should become 
prevalent through much of the period. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon and into 
the early evening hours, bringing brief reductions in visibility 
and ceilings in and around some of the heavier activity. 
Conditions begin to dry out overnight tonight, however, patchy 
fog/low stratus may once again attempt to develop over interior
portions of southwest and south central Alabama. /96


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

The overall pattern that we have seen over the past couple of 
days persists through this evening. Looking aloft, a few weak 
shortwave impulses, embedded within a general zonal flow pattern, 
will continue to stream across the local area throughout the day 
today. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary continues to 
linger along the coast. With ample deep layer moisture in place 
(PWATs around 1.5 to 1.9 inches), expect another round of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. 
Highest coverage will be for areas along and east of the I-65 
corridor. Severe storms are once again not anticipated due to 
modest instability, however cannot rule out a few strong storms 
capable of producing gusty winds over coastal counties, where 
MLCAPEs could approach ~1500 J/kg in spots and DCAPEs range from 
700- 900 J/kg. Convection will decrease in coverage during the 
evening, with only a few isolated showers/storms anticipated 
overnight tonight for areas east of I-65. 

For Sunday, an upper-level trough digs southeastward, with its
axis passing overhead during the afternoon. In response, an 
associated cold front at the surface will push across the Deep 
South, sweeping across our local area during the late morning and 
afternoon hours. Behind this front a much drier airmass filters in
from the north, causing PWATs to plummet to below an inch and dew
points to bottom out in the mid to upper 50s (west of I-65) and 
low 60s (east of I- 65). A few isolated showers and storms could 
be possible over the eastern half of the region prior to the 
passage of the front, but overall, conditions should generally 
remain dry.

Highs for both today and tomorrow will top out in the upper 80s to
low 90s across the area. Lows tonight will range from the mid to 
upper 60s north of I-10 to the low to mid 70s along the coast. A 
Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the period. /96

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

The large upper trough over the eastern CONUS will lift northeast
and deamplify through Monday, followed by a remnant weak upper 
trough remaining over the region through Friday. A much drier 
airmass will continue to filter into the area from the north 
through Tuesday, followed by surface winds shifting northeasterly 
to easterly as a surface ridge builds along the Appalachian 
Mountains into our region. Skies will be clear to mostly clear 
through the period along with rain-free conditions.

The drier airmass will result in warm daytime high temperatures in
the middle 80s to lower 90s each day. At night, however, the dry
airmass will bring a hint of Fall resulting in quite a bit cooler
overnight low temperatures. Lows Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday
nights should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s interior areas, and
range from the middle 60s to around 70 degrees closer to the 
coast. A few readings in the mid 50s are possible well inland 
Monday night. Overnight lows will then be a couple of degrees
warmer through the remainder of the forecast. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

No impacts are expected throughout the forecast period other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near any storms. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  69  92  65  89  64  90  65 /  40  20  10  10   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   88  73  91  68  89  67  88  69 /  50  30  20  10   0   0   0   0 
Destin      87  76  89  71  90  70  89  71 /  50  30  30  20   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   90  68  90  61  89  59  90  60 /  40  30  20  10   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  91  65  89  61  87  59  88  60 /  20  10   0  10   0   0   0   0 
Camden      88  67  88  59  84  57  86  58 /  40  20  10  10   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   89  69  91  63  90  60  90  61 /  50  30  30  10   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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