613 
FXUS64 KMAF 121120
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

A disturbance moving out of New Mexico caused a mass of convection 
to blow through the Permian Basin last night and is exiting the area 
early this morning. The atmosphere has stabilized some in the wake 
of the rainfall though a few scattered showers should linger 
throughout today. Models are showing another disturbance moving 
across the area tonight causing another round of showers and storms 
to develop. Model consensus shows the best chance for convection 
tonight will again be from southeastern New Mexico across the Trans 
Pecos to the Permian Basin though areas farther southwest should 
have a better chance for rain than what was seen last night. Rain 
chances on Wednesday will be greatest in the Permian Basin where the 
greatest low level moisture will be located. The overall threat for 
severe storms will be low though brief, gusty winds will definitely 
be something to watch for in any of the stronger storms.

The cold front has certainly moved through the area now with 
moderate and gusty northeast winds advecting in cooler temperatures. 
The cold air advection combined with persistent low clouds lingering 
through the afternoon should keep temperatures in the 70s and 80s
everywhere except in the Big Bend near the Rio Grande. Cloud 
cover keeps temps from bottoming out tonight and there should be 
enough breaks in the clouds Wednesday afternoon that temperatures 
warm back up to near normal. 

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

The current weather pattern is reminiscent of this past May. 
Precipitation chances and cooler weather remain in the extended 
forecast with a weak upper-level high and active subtropical jet 
stream over the southern Great Plains. The only difference from May 
is instability will be much weaker, keeping severe weather largely 
at bay. With this active pattern, daily rainfall chances are 
expected across the majority of the region. The best chance of rain 
each day is expected to be across the Permian Basin but elsewhere 
can expect lesser rainfall chances. Temperatures each afternoon 
through the end of this week reach the 80s and low 90s for the 
majority. Heading into the weekend, a shortwave enters the central 
and northern Great Plains. These features push a cold front through 
the region. This helps continue our rainfall chances and brings 
another shot of cooler weather to the region. Afternoon high 
temperatures only reach the upper 70s and 80s for most locations 
through the weekend. all in all, the return of rain is greatly 
appreciated and it can not be understated how much this rain has 
been sorely needed.

Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

MVFR to borderline IFR conditions are expected through at least
the next 12 hours with scattered showers periodically threatening
the TAF sites. Some TS will be in the area but too scarce to
mention in the TAFs. VFR conditions are expected in the latter
part of the TAFs but sites may go back down to MVFR before the end
of the forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  65  80  66 /  70  70  70  70 
Carlsbad                 72  63  86  62 /  60  60  60  50 
Dryden                   91  69  89  71 /  40  60  50  50 
Fort Stockton            82  65  87  67 /  50  60  60  60 
Guadalupe Pass           70  59  80  62 /  40  60  50  40 
Hobbs                    69  61  80  62 /  60  60  60  70 
Marfa                    80  60  85  60 /  50  60  60  50 
Midland Intl Airport     74  65  82  67 /  50  60  60  70 
Odessa                   74  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  70 
Wink                     78  65  87  67 /  50  60  50  60 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10