895 
FXUS63 KAPX 121004
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
604 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...Showers and Drizzle Continue Today...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing will continue to pivot across the Upper Midwest 
and over the Great Lakes today and tonight. Favorable forcing aloft 
provided by an embedded shortwave rotating over eastern Ontario will 
continue to support a weak cyclone that will keep sliding east of 
the Great Lakes and into Quebec later today/tonight, becoming 
increasingly vertically stacked with time.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing scattered showers associated with the aforementioned system 
will keep working across areas east of I-75 early this morning, 
eventually moving out over Lake Huron shortly after sunrise. 
Enhanced northwest flow will spread over the region today as the 
pressure gradient tightens behind the departing cyclone. Cool air 
temperatures in the 50s over the relatively warm Great Lakes waters 
is expected to generate light lake effect rain showers/drizzle 
across portions of northern Michigan through the afternoon. Lake 
effect chances will continue into tonight before tapering heading 
into Wednesday as an increasingly dry airmass is advected into the 
region and the wind field begins to weaken as the system slides 
further from the region. Otherwise, high temperatures in the low 50s 
to low 60s are expected this afternoon with cooler lows in the 40s 
in store tonight.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...Below Normal Temperatures...

High Impact Weather...Frost possible late Wednesday night.

The upper level trough and associated low level moisture is shown to 
slowly scour out Wednesday (leading to clearing skies, especially in 
the afternoon) as ridging/subsidence and associated surface high 
pressure all build in from the northwest. Light winds and mostly 
clear skies are then expected for Wednesday night which could set 
the stage for a frosty late night in some areas, especially in the 
normally colder low lying spots. There is still plenty of time to 
ascertain just how widespread this may end up being for possible 
headlines sake but something to keep in mind as a potential outcome. 
Bright sunshine looks like a good bet to follow on Thursday. Not 
quite as cool Wednesday with highs ranging from the the upper 50s to 
mid 60s followed by highs in the mid and upper 60s Thursday. Lows 
Wednesday night in the 30s to low 40s along with that frost threat. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...Milder then Showers Possible...

There is some uncertainty over the track of Hurricane Lee which 
could affect our forecast later in the period. One sure bet is that 
regardless of the track, the hurricane is expected to pump up the 
ridge across the Great Lakes region late this week into at least 
early this weekend. This should lead to rather pleasant conditions 
across our neck of the woods with milder temperatures. Uncertainty 
then enters into the picture as we head into this weekend (mainly 
Sunday) on into Monday with a majority of extended guidance still 
bringing Pacific energy eastward into the region. This scenario 
would result in shower chances along with slightly cooler 
temperatures. However, this solution is subject to change due to 
ongoing uncertainty over the track of Lee which could still keep the 
ridge in place longer per pattern recognition.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 604 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Flight conditions will begin to improve across northern Michigan 
this morning into the afternoon. Current LIFR/IFR CIGS look to rise 
to MVFR across all TAF sites by noon. Scattered light rain showers 
and drizzle is expected to continue today into tonight across parts 
of the area, especially northwest lower Michigan. Temporary drops in 
VSBY down to MVFR are possible within any steadier rainfall and 
BR development, but expectation is that VSBYs should remain VFR 
for the most part. Northwest winds around 10 kts with gusts to 
15-20 kts will weaken tonight. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

While northwest winds will increase this morning and afternoon, 
winds and waves are largely expected to remain below advisory 
criteria over the next several days. Wind speeds will increase to 
around 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts through the afternoon. A 
few small craft criteria gusts cannot be ruled out over the northern 
Lake Michigan nearshores. Otherwise, rain showers will continue to 
move across northern Lake Huron and the St. Marys River this morning 
into this afternoon. Rain chances over the nearshore waters will 
diminish into tonight.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DJC
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...DJC
MARINE...DJC