337 
FXUS63 KFGF 120900
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Key Messages:

-Patchy fog this morning for portions of the Red River Valley.

-Cooler today, with a return to mild conditions on Wednesday.

Overall, a generally quiet pattern prevails today, with northerly H5 
flow becoming nearly zonal later on Wednesday. Surface high pressure 
pushes to the east today, giving way to a shortwave ridge heading 
into Wednesday.

Look for a cool start to the day with temperatures ranging from the 
upper 30s to the lower 40s. Patchy fog is expected this morning, 
primarily in the Red River Valley. Partly cloudy skies this morning 
are expected to clear by midday, with afternoon highs reaching the 
lower to middle 60s. 

Tonight, look for lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, with the low 
temperatures generally occurring early during the overnight period. 
Winds become southeasterly, then southerly heading into early 
Wednesday morning, preventing temperatures from falling further into 
the 30s. These same southerly winds will advect warmer air into the 
area, with low to mid 70s expected for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Key Messages:

-Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday 
 afternoon through early Friday morning.

-Breezy north winds and slightly cooler temperatures return for 
 the weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday as a 
somewhat deep shortwave moves across the area. A theta-e gradient 
will provide lift ahead of cooler air; however, moisture will be 
lacking overall. The best chances for rain will occur in far 
southeastern North Dakota and west-central Minnesota, where we will 
see about a 20-30 percent chance of 0.25 inch or more rain. Further 
north and west, that chance decreases to about 10 percent, thus this 
system is not expected to provide large amounts of precipitation. As 
the system moves through the area Thursday night, there should be 
enough instability to allow isolated thunderstorm development. 

Cooler air works into the area on Friday, with a weak reinforcing 
surge of cool air on Saturday. Highs for Friday are expected to 
reach the middle 70s, with slightly cooler 60s to low 70s on 
Saturday. At this time the weekend looks to remain dry, with this 
trend extending into the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Stratus is lingering at KBJI and is shown to expand with
additional stratus developing into southeast ND by guidance
through the night and by 12Z towards KFAR. How far north the 
stratus makes it is more uncertain. The majority of guidance keeps
this away from KGFK and KDVL, but there is a subset of guidance 
that brings lower ceilings over those terminals around 12Z. Fog 
may also be possible in southeast ND and west central MN based on 
the pattern but guidance hasn't been consistent on this. There 
should be a transition to VFR mid to late morning, though guidance 
is delaying this improvement for KBJI until late afternoon. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR