715 
FXUS63 KMPX 120602 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
102 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES: 

- A few chances for precipitation through the period, but amounts
  will be minimal.

- High pressure and light winds Tuesday night will produce the
  coolest overnight lows since May for most locations, with patchy
  frost possible in portions of west central Wisconsin.

In the big picture, predominantly northwest upper flow will prevail
through the period, with two well-defined shortwave troughs moving
through the region to bring precipitation chances. Currently, we're
seeing scattered SHRA/TSRA moving into the northern portion of the
area in association with the upper trough and mid-level cold pocket
dropping southeast into the area. Shower chances associated with this
feature will continue into the evening, dropping southeastward with
time. Some diurnal SHRA will be possible during peak heating on
Tuesday, mainly over the eastern portion of the area where a
vorticity max will rotate through and help take advantage of
lingering decent lapse rates.

High pressure will assert itself Tuesday night, particularly over the
north/east portion of the area. With skies expected to clear out and
winds expected to drop off, lows Tuesday night will dip into the mid
to upper 30s from central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin, and
some patchy frost will be possible in those area. The Twin Cities
metro should remain in the 40s, with a few spots perhaps getting as
low as 40 by early Wednesday morning. Fair and dry weather will then
prevail from Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure slowly
drifts off to the east. Return flow will begin to setup late
Wednesday and persist through Thursday, allowing for some moisture
return ahead of the next upper trough and cold front that will move
through the region Friday into Friday night. That feature will bring
another chance for SHRA (and perhaps a few TSRA across the
southwest/south). We'll then have a similar setup to tomorrow, with a
lingering mid/upper cold pool Saturday into Sunday with the chance
for some diurnal SHRA each afternoon over mainly the eastern portion
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Mid level clouds should clear somewhat overnight and allow lower
clouds to develop late tonight and early Tuesday. The development of
these lower clouds and possibly fog will be dependent on how long an
area remains clear of mid level clouds, which adds some complexity 
to the TAF forecast. 

KMSP...No concerns tonight, but MVFR cigs appear likely to develop
around or just after sunset and continue through at least mid 
morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. 
Thu...VFR. Winds SW 5-10G15 kts.
Fri...VFR/chc MVFR -SHRA. Winds W 10-15 kts. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO MPX
AVIATION...Borghoff