927 
FXUS63 KMPX 120012
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
712 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES: 

- A few chances for precipitation through the period, but amounts
  will be minimal.

- High pressure and light winds Tuesday night will produce the
  coolest overnight lows since May for most locations, with patchy
  frost possible in portions of west central Wisconsin.

In the big picture, predominantly northwest upper flow will prevail
through the period, with two well-defined shortwave troughs moving
through the region to bring precipitation chances. Currently, we're
seeing scattered SHRA/TSRA moving into the northern portion of the
area in association with the upper trough and mid-level cold pocket
dropping southeast into the area. Shower chances associated with this
feature will continue into the evening, dropping southeastward with
time. Some diurnal SHRA will be possible during peak heating on
Tuesday, mainly over the eastern portion of the area where a
vorticity max will rotate through and help take advantage of
lingering decent lapse rates.

High pressure will assert itself Tuesday night, particularly over the
north/east portion of the area. With skies expected to clear out and
winds expected to drop off, lows Tuesday night will dip into the mid
to upper 30s from central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin, and
some patchy frost will be possible in those area. The Twin Cities
metro should remain in the 40s, with a few spots perhaps getting as
low as 40 by early Wednesday morning. Fair and dry weather will then
prevail from Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure slowly
drifts off to the east. Return flow will begin to setup late
Wednesday and persist through Thursday, allowing for some moisture
return ahead of the next upper trough and cold front that will move
through the region Friday into Friday night. That feature will bring
another chance for SHRA (and perhaps a few TSRA across the
southwest/south). We'll then have a similar setup to tomorrow, with a
lingering mid/upper cold pool Saturday into Sunday with the chance
for some diurnal SHRA each afternoon over mainly the eastern portion
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Aviation... Mixed bag of flight categories this TAF period. Current 
radar reflectivity showing broad areas of MVFR showers across much 
of Minnesota this evening. These showers will continue to move 
southeast across all sites through tonight. Isolated shower chances 
may linger for WI sites into tomorrow afternoon however confidence 
was too low to include timing/coverage impacts. Another concern is 
the potential of patchy MVFR/IFR fog tomorrow morning. The 
environment will be plenty saturated combined with light winds to 
develop fog just before sunrise especially for the WI sites as well 
as STC and AXN. Categories return to VFR mid-morning once any 
existing fog mixes out. 

KMSP...Concluding the TEMPO for scattered SHRA at 04z. Light winds 
and VFR cigs overnight. Winds slightly increase tomorrow afternoon 
but nothing amounting to any concern.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. 
Thu...VFR. Winds SW 5-10G15 kts.
Fri...VFR/chc MVFR -SHRA. Winds W 10-15 kts. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO MPX
AVIATION...RMD