828 
FXUS64 KMOB 120003
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
703 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent across the
forecast area through Tuesday morning. A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop along the coast Tuesday morning, especially
after 14Z, and these could impact the local terminals during the 
mid to late morning hours. For now have included PROB30 groups for
TSRA at KMOB/KBFM/KPNS/KJKA from 14-18Z. Light southerly winds
diminishing and becoming light and variable overnight, then light
southerly once again during the day on Tuesday.  /12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

The near term remains relatively unchanged from the prior forecast. 
Aloft, a large trough over the Midwest will continue to gradually 
dig and pivot into the Ohio River Valley through Tuesday bringing a 
modest increase in moisture as southwest flow aloft returns. At the 
surface, a weak cold front associated with the trough will begin 
approaching the region from the northwest close to the end of the 
period, whilest a weak boundary continues to meander generally along 
and southeast of the I-65 corridor. Based on this pattern, PoP 
chances on Tuesday will remain scattered for most areas generally 
south of Highway 84, with the best chances (around 40-50%) closer to 
the coast (near the afternoon seabreeze). Otherwise, expect slight 
chance PoPs (around 20-25%) generally along and north of Highway 84. 

As for temps, lows tonight are still forecast to range from 
generally the upper 60s inland, to the low 70s down to the coast, 
except at the immediate coast where mid 70s are forecast. On 
Tuesday, expecting dew points to continue to remain lower than NBM 
guidance, and have opted to keep lower dewpoints for Tuesday 
afternoon due to mixing. Given some increased cloud cover expected 
with the increased PoP chances, highs will be tempered just a tad 
with mainly low 90s expected across the area, with upper 80s at the 
immediate coast. Lastly, a LOW risk of rip currents expected through 
the period. JEH/88 

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 421 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

A moist westerly mid to upper level flow pattern will prevail
across our forecast area through the middle part of the week along
the base of a broad upper level trough that extends across the 
eastern CONUS. A surface frontal boundary will move into the area
late Tuesday night and will sink southward into coastal portions
of the forecast area during the day Wednesday. Deep layer moisture
will remain elevated across our forecast area along the base of
the trough axis and surface boundary through Wednesday. We will
maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms across our region
on Wednesday, with POPs generally ranging between 30-50%. POPs
Tuesday night and Wednesday night will remain relegated to near
the coast and offshore waters. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday
night will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s inland and in the
mid 70s along the immediate coast. Highs on Wednesday will
generally range from the mid to upper 80s over interior southeast
MS and southwest AL to the lower 90s over the southern half of the
area. /21

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

A northwesterly to zonal flow pattern aloft generally continues
through the latter part of the week before another upper level
trough amplifies over the Plains Saturday and moves across the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions and adjacent Gulf Coast
states Saturday night into Sunday. Moisture will remain sufficient
along with transient impulses in the W-NW flow aloft to support
a slight chance to a chance (20-40% coverage) of showers and 
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Rain and storm chances may tick
up this weekend with the approach of the upper trough axis, but
given the uncertainty of timing of the trough, we have kept POPs
at NBM levels (remaining between 20-40%) this weekend. Drier
conditions may return on Monday behind the passing trough and
associated cold front. High temperatures should continue to range
in the mid to upper 80s inland to around 90 degrees along the 
coast through the extended period. Lows generally range in the 60s
over inland areas with lower to mid 70s along the immediate coast
and beaches. /21 

MARINE...
Issued at 421 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

No marine hazards expected through the period outside of 
locally higher winds and seas in and around shower and storm 
development through the forecast period. JEH/88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  90  71  92  70  90  69  90 /  10  40  10  50  20  20  10  30 
Pensacola   75  89  74  91  73  90  73  89 /  10  50  20  50  20  20  20  30 
Destin      77  89  76  91  74  90  74  89 /  20  50  20  40  20  30  20  40 
Evergreen   67  93  68  92  66  90  66  88 /  10  30  20  40  10  20  10  30 
Waynesboro  68  93  69  87  66  87  65  87 /  10  20  20  30  10  20  10  20 
Camden      67  93  68  87  66  86  66  84 /  10  20  20  30  10  20   0  20 
Crestview   69  92  69  93  67  90  68  89 /  10  50  20  40  20  30  10  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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