197 
FXUS64 KLZK 111139
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
639 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night )
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

The Natural State rmns under the influence of a large area of sfc 
high pressure this mrng. Some mid and high lvl clouds were starting 
to incrs ovr NW AR, assocd with ongoing convection well to the west 
and northwest of the region. Otherwise, skies were generally clear 
with predawn temps in the 60s.

The ongoing convection, currently acrs the Srn Plains, wl cont to
make slow progress to the east. However, the overall coverage and
intensity is expected to dcrs as the activity apchs AR later today.

Model solutions this mrng cont to show that the upper lvl flow 
pattern wl bcm quasi-zonal in the coming days. This wl allow a new 
CDFNT to eventually move thru AR fm the NW tngt into Tue. Most of 
the precip assocd with the bndry wl be post-fntl as a mid lvl trof 
passes acrs the FA. Limited instability wl keep thunderstorm 
coverage rather low as well, along with the potential for any severe 
wx.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

A new cold front will be dropping S/SW into the state at the start 
of the long term period...with chances for mainly SHRA increasing 
for SWRN sections of the state on Wed. This front looks to push 
fully SW of AR by Thu...with the majority of the precip chances 
staying SW of AR for Thu. Even so...some precip may still be 
possible across SWRN sections Thu into Fri before the drier air 
filters into the state.

Temps will be coolest early in the long term with the new 
front...and precip chances. However...temps will slowly warm through 
the rest of the period. Even so...expect temps to remain generally 
below normal for the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru the day as mid and high lvl
clouds cont to incrs fm the west. A CDFNT is fcst to move thru
most of the terminal sites tngt into early Tue mrng. Rain chcs wl
incrs, esp post-fntl activity. As a result, conds wl gradually
deteriorate later in the PD acrs NW AR, with MVFR/IFR conds
prevailing. Elsewhere, CIGS wl lower late in the PD, but stay at
VFR lvls. 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...44