656 
FXUS64 KLZK 092318 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
618 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Skies were clear over much of the state today with the exception of 
NE/Ern AR. Over the NErn third of the state, an expansive daytime Cu 
field was noted via visible satellite imagery that extended N and E 
into the TN and OH Valley regions. Temperatures had warmed into the 
upper 70s to upper 80s across AR but still felt nice since dew point 
temperatures were in the mid 50s to mid 60s. N/NE winds will prevail 
as high pressure slowly works Ewrd across Cntrl MO. This N/NE 
flow will ensure drier air remains in place for a couple more days. 

In the upper levels, NW flow will continue locally through Sunday, 
before the pattern becomes more zonal out ahead of the next 
approaching storm system to enter the Cntrl Plains. Winds will 
eventually veer to a southerly direction late in the period once 
high pressure departs the region. 

Conditions on Sunday will be similar to today, abundant sunshine 
expected with high temperatures climbing into the 80s to perhaps 90 
degrees. Highs on Monday will be a tick warmer with readings 
creeping into the upper 80s and lower 90s with overall higher low-
level moisture advecting into the region. Overnight lows will feel 
great, with widespread 50s to lower 60s tonight and isolated 50s to 
mid 60s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

To begin the period, a cold front is expected to move into the state 
bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. 
Additionally, zonal flow aloft will set the stage for an active 
weather pattern through the long term with a few rounds of rain 
possible. While global models suggest these systems to be quick 
moving, multiple rounds of rain could bring some beneficial rain to 
the area. Calmer and drier weather is expected to return by the end 
of the period.

In regards to QPF amounts...global and ensemble models indicate that 
beneficial rainfall is likely across the CWA during the long term. 
Right now, most areas could see up to an inch with western locations 
possibly seeing up to two inches.

Temperatures are expected to be below average through much of the 
long term period...a welcome break from the hot temperatures we have 
had the last several weeks. High temperatures are forecast to be in 
the upper 60s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid 50s to 
upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

For the 00Z TAFs... Expect VFR condns to prevail at most locations
thru the PD, exceptions wl include some patchy fog overnight at
Cntrl terminals, including HOT/ADF, though confidence is not high
on prolonged impacts, some MVFR VISBY's may be seen intermittenly
in the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, winds thru the PD wl be prevail
from the N-N/W, w/ ocsnl gusts again on Sun afternoon.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden AR         59  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Harrison AR       56  80  59  78 /   0   0   0  20 
Hot Springs AR    61  86  64  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Little Rock   AR  63  86  65  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Monticello AR     61  83  64  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Mount Ida AR      58  85  60  87 /   0   0   0  10 
Mountain Home AR  57  81  60  79 /   0   0   0  10 
Newport AR        59  82  61  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     60  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Russellville AR   60  86  63  86 /   0   0   0  10 
Searcy AR         59  84  61  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      60  85  63  89 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...72