626 
FXUS63 KGLD 140830
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Overall forecast remains on track. Only changes I have made was to
lower temperatures along and north of I-70 as this has the makings
of a strong radiational cooling night once clouds clear as winds
will go light and variable. Upstream across northeast Colorado and
up into SE Wyoming have noticed that dew points are in the upper
30s to low 40s, this drier air is already moving into the area as
the dew point at Wray and Holyoke have fallen into the low to mid
40s. Current forecasted overnight lows are in the upper 40s to 
low 50s along and north of I-70 and the mid to upper 50s south of 
I-70 where clouds may not fully dissipate by sunrise. These 
forecasted temperatures will put some record lows in jeopardy such
as at Goodland, Yuma and Burlington. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Overview: Flow aloft (over the Tri-State area) will veer from W 
to NW in this period as an upper level low (and associated 850 mb 
low) -- presently centered invof the central SD/ND border -- 
tracks southeastward to Sioux Falls (tonight) and eastward to 
Davenport (Monday).. and an upper level ridge builds/amplifies 
over the 4-Corners.

Through Tonight: A relatively cool airmass (somewhat reinforced 
by stratus) progressed southward across the Tri-State area this 
morning -- via northerly low-level flow /cold advection/ on the 
western periphery of the aforementioned 850 mb low over the 
Dakotas. At 19 UTC, the southern extent of this airmass was 
located (roughly) invof a line extending northeastward from 
Ulysses--> Jetmore--> Russell. Observational trends and current/ 
recent runs of high-res guidance (such as the HRRR, NAM NEST and 
RRFS) suggest that convective development this aft-eve, if any, 
will be relegated south and east of the NWS Goodland CWA. Modest 
/~1022 mb/ high pressure, characterized by 850 mb temps ~12-15C, 
will build SE-ESE into the Tri-State this evening and overnight. 

Mon-Mon night: With a relatively cool SFC-H85 airmass in place 
over the region Mon morning.. a low-level pattern characterized 
by weak flow /neutral thermal advection/.. and an increasingly 
subsident upper level pattern (as the aforementioned upper low 
progresses eastward to the Great Lakes and a ridge amplifies 
invof the 4-Corners).. expect benign weather with daytime highs 
similar to today, ranging from the mid 70s to lower-mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) 
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Upper ridge moves from the Rockies to the Great Lakes and will be
the dominant feature. Temperatures cool slightly on Thursday 
after a glancing blow from a cold front, but rapidly warm 
thereafter with much above normal temperatures Friday through 
Sunday. Highs will be around 90 on Thursday, upper 90s to lower 
100s Friday and Saturday, and mid to upper 90s on Sunday. 
Precipitation chances will be slim to none, with only a low chance
of a shower or thunderstorm moving off the Front Range and across
eastern Colorado Saturday and Sunday evenings. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 957 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2023

VFR conditions are forecast through the period as drier air
advects into the region. Breezy winds (although not as breezy as
today) will continue at each site in response to the low pressure
system over the midwest, wind gusts of 20-30 knots are expected 
with the relative higher gusts at KMCK. 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg