785 
FXUS65 KFGZ 241034
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
334 AM MST Mon Jul 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to bring hot conditions to
Arizona through much of the week. Increasing moisture will bring 
daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through 
midweek before slight drying occurs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is center near the Four Corners this
morning. Abundant moisture covers much of Arizona this morning
with Pwats over an inch (1.21') over southern Yavapai County an
close to an inch over the Page area. Water vapor imagery is
showing a dry slot from the southern tier of states nosing into
far eastern Arizona this morning. IR loop is showing left over mid
and high level clouds from the convection yesterday and last
evening. This means that the storms may be delayed an hour or two
today. Also, storms may be more numerous west of a Page-Winslow-
Payson line today. A weak disturbance moving into eastern Arizona
late this afternoon and evening may trigger storms across Apache
County late this afternoon and evening. 

Storm coverage looks to increase again across far eastern Arizona
again on Tuesday as the center of the high migrates eastward. The
moisture looks to move back eastward on Wednesday with less 
activity across Yavapai and western Coconino counties. Drying in 
the western zones (from Flagstaff westward) continues on Thursday
and Friday before moisture increases again. This all depends on 
where the center of the high pressure is located as it wobbles 
around the Southwest. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAF Package...Outside of showers and 
thunderstorms, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. 
Expect daytime southwest winds generally 5 to 15 knots, gusting to 
20 knots. Afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are forecast mainly along and west of a KPGA-KFLG-KPRC line. Some 
storms will produce heavy rain and frequent lightning. Gusty and 
erratic winds are likely near any storms. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon and evening. Some storms 
may produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty, erratic 
outflow winds in excess of 30 mph. Outside of storms, mainly light 
southwest winds will prevail each day. Minimum RH values in the 
teens and twenties are expected.

Wednesday through Friday...Isolated to scattered shower and 
thunderstorm activity is forecast each afternoon and evening. 
Greatest coverage will remain over the White Mountains and Mogollon 
Rim. Above average temperatures will continue. Generally light 
southwest winds and minimum RH values in the teens and twenties are 
expected each day. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...Benji

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff