354 
FXUS63 KFGF 101517
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1017 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Showers have since dissipated, but may still remain possible along
a zone of mid level fgen and/or low level CAA behind the departing
cold front to our south.

Higher altitude smoke will linger over the area today caught in
the mid to upper level northwesterly flow on the southwest flanks
of the upper low within western Ontario.

Daytime mixing may help spark a few showers and/or weak
thunderstorms near Lake of the Woods deeper within the colder air
aloft assoc with the upper low, and ahead of a shortwave trough
moving through the base of the upper low out of eastern Manitoba
into western Ontario.

Daytime mixing will also help tap into higher winds aloft creating
breezy northwest winds this afternoon, with gusts between 20-30
mph. Depending on how deep we mix, could even see a few gusts
in the 30-40 mph, more favorable to occur within northeast North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Isolated showers are still lingering across northeast ND and
northwest MN (along/north of Highway 2). THe axis of
forcing/elevated instability transitioning south could still 
result in redevelopment along with new CU development in the 
afternoon. Short range guidance is favoring this activity falling 
apart and dry/clearing trends being favored. I stuck with ongoing 
forecast for lingering 20 POPs and possible CU redevelopment this
afternoon as the pattern rather than guidance seems to support 
it, but depending on observed trends we could remove things. Very 
localized pockets of ground fog/possibly mixed with smoke are 
being reported this morning with lower vis in the norther Red 
River Valley. Due to the shallow nature of the stable layer where 
the calm winds are supporting this pooling I would expeted it to 
rapidly clear with daytime heating/higher July solar angle. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

-Cooler temperatures remain in place through Tuesday (around 10F 
below average for mid July). 

-Isolated light showers/sprinkles remain possible through the early 
afternoon. Light rain chances return Tuesday night mainly in ND, 
with the 6hr probability for a wetting rain (0.1"+) less than 20%. An 
isolated embedded thunderstorm can't be ruled out Tuesday night, 
but lightning would be the main threat. 

The cold front has pushed almost completely through our CWA early 
this morning, and should be south after daybreak. This is resulting 
in a rapid decrease in instability, though there is just enough 
frontogenesis in the 850-700MB layer and lingering weak instability 
to support lingering showers north of the front. This is shown to 
transition south over the region today with low coverage and even 
lower rain amounts where they track. Redevelopment of showers/storms 
can't be ruled out closer to the frontal zone during peak heating, 
but this being farther south lowers confidence in any new 
thunderstorms. 

Falling heights/CAA associated with the mid/upper low building just 
a little farther south will keep below average temperatures in place 
through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 60s-lower 70s. Lows 
tonight/early Tuesday morning may be particularly chilly with cold 
spots in the north possibly dropping to the upper 30s (40s will be 
pretty common). 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

-The below average temperature pattern moderate, with seasonal 
ranges later this week into early next week. 

-Occasional shower chances remain in place Tuesday night through 
early next week for parts of the region, but the probability for 
wetting rainfall (0.1"+) in any one 6hr period is less than 20% 
where precipitation is forecast. Thunderstorm chances remain even 
lower, and severe thunderstorm impacts are not expected at this time.

A mid level wave is resolved to progress into the northern plains 
Tuesday night through Wednesday, with the focus for rain shower 
development along a baroclinic zone that main remain west and south 
of our CWA, and there is increasing spread in potential 
coverage/amounts as it moves into into our CWA. Instability should 
remain minimal as we remain cutoff from better BL Td return and 
other than a few embedded thunderstorms within shower clusters we 
should see minimal impacts. 24hr probabilities for wetting rain 
(0.1"+) is a bit higher (30-40%) in our west and south, but the 
actual 6hr probs are still around or less than 15%. The probability 
for 0.25"+ is even lower (less than 10%), and would likely require 
better instability or a shift in the position of the theta-E axis to 
achieve. 

The mid/upper low centered near Hudson Bay will continue to be the 
dominant feature for our region in this very blocky continental 
pattern over the CONUS. Clusters maintain strong consistency in the 
larger scale pattern through the end of the week with some 
separation in how soon the Hudson Bay low breaks down allowing for a 
transition to more westerly zonal versus northwesterly flow (along 
with the degree of height rises through early next week). This 
mainly creates larger spread in temperature trends with time, and 
the potential for BL return flow/higher instability returning late 
next weekend/early next week. Any precipitation chances beyond 
Wednesday are tied to smaller scale progressive features, which vary 
even in the periods with stronger large scale consensus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

A very localized small pocket of IFR stratus impacted KGFK 
earlier this morning, but has likely broken up with no indications
from surrounding obs/satellite this will rebuild. Pockets of light
ground fog/possible smoke has settled in the northern Red River
Valley and is also impacting KGFK early in the TAF period with
less confidence on this impacts any other terminals before it
mixes with daytime heating. After the early part of the TAF period
VFR should prevail through the rest of the TAF period, with winds
eventually prevailing from the north-northwest 11-14kt this
afternoon (some gusts as high as 25kt can't be ruled out). Mid
level CU around 6000 FT will transition north and possible
redevelop and isolated showers remain possible though due to
limited coverage and less confidence in redevelopment I left
mention only at GFK-KTVF-KBJI. Surface high pressure building east
should result in rapidly decreasing winds/clearing skies as we
approach sunset. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...DJR