002 
FXUS64 KLZK 301119
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
619 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night )
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Upper level high pressure will be centered over southeast Arkansas 
to begin the long term period with an upper trough over the Rockies. 
Tonight and Saturday the upper high will shift east and the trough 
will move into the Plains. By Saturday night the upper trough moves 
into the Midwest and the high weakens along the Gulf Coast.

High pressure will continue over the area today with hot and humid 
conditions. High temperatures will reach the mid 90s to lower 100s 
again today. Heat indices will be dangerous in the 105 to 120 degree 
range. A Heat Advisory and an Excessive Heat Warning will continue 
today. A cold front will approach from the west Saturday an 
increased chance of showers and thunderstorms in the north and 
eventually in the east. The heat will continue Saturday in central 
and eastern sections. A Heat Advisory has been issued for north 
central, central and south sections Saturday, and an Excessive Heat 
Warning for the eastern section. Highs today will be in the mid 90s 
to lower 100s and Saturday highs will be in the lower 90s to around 
100 degrees. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

The long term period will begin with a low amplitude trough 
traversing the Mid/Upper MS Valley. This trough will dislodge a 
stout ridge which was parked across the region to the S a bit, this 
ridge will be responsible for continued triple digit heat and heat 
indices well north of the 110 mark during the short term period.

At the surface a weak front will make its way into the state on 
Sunday, sparking off showers and thunderstorms ahead of the 
boundary. The environmental parameters do not appear as robust as 
the previous several rounds of severe weather at this time. 
SBCAPE/MUCAPE appear to be the most impressive with values in the 
2000-3500 J/Kg Sunday afternoon. DCAPE between 1000-1300 J/Kg would 
suggest a potential for damaging winds but with a lack of EBWD (10-
20 KTs) the threat for organized convection, i.e. MCS with bowing 
segments, appear low. Even the Skew-T CAPE profile aloft is more 
representative of tall and skinny with a decent amount of drying 
near the surface (inverted V sounding). The threat for large hail 
appears to be low at the moment. Given the lack of wind shear with 
height, individual pulse convection/loosely organized cells may pose 
a damaging wind threat due to heighten DCAPE values in excess of 
900 J/Kg. 

The front will slowly make its way across the state into Monday 
before stalling over Srn sections of the state. Increased cloud 
cover in conjunction with light Nrly winds will bring temps down a 
few degrees, but more notably, heat index values down to more 
manageable levels.

The front is expected to remain stalled over the region through much 
of the period, thanks to weak Wrly flow aloft, thus providing 
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the state nearly each 
day through the long term. This will help keep high temperatures in 
the 90s and with added cloud cover, keep heat index values lower 
over the course of the week. Better PoP chances return by Thursday 
with the passage of another weak shortwave trough and approach of 
weak frontal boundary. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

High pressure will provide another hot and humid day across the
state. Patchy fog with MVFR and IFR conditions central and south 
will dissipate early. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    102  78  98  74 /  10  10  20  20 
Camden AR         99  77  97  75 /   0   0  10  10 
Harrison AR       98  76  93  70 /  10  10  30  30 
Hot Springs AR   101  77  99  75 /   0   0  10  10 
Little Rock   AR 102  81 100  78 /   0   0  10  10 
Monticello AR    101  80 100  78 /   0  10  10  10 
Mount Ida AR      99  76  97  72 /   0   0  10  10 
Mountain Home AR  99  75  96  71 /  10  10  30  30 
Newport AR        99  80  98  77 /  10   0  20  20 
Pine Bluff AR    101  79  99  77 /   0   0  10  10 
Russellville AR  101  77  98  74 /   0   0  10  20 
Searcy AR        101  78  99  76 /  10   0  20  10 
Stuttgart AR     100  80  98  78 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for 
ARZ004-005-014-052-103-112-113-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-237-
240-241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening 
for ARZ006>008-015>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-
062>069-121>123-130-137-138-230-238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ006-014-015-
024-031-032-039-042>044-053>055-062-063-066>068-122-123.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007-
008-016-017-025-033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...51