107 
FXUS61 KCLE 300602
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
202 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves eastward across Ontario as a warm front 
lifts across the region overnight. A cold front stalls over the
central Great Lakes southwest to the middle Mississippi Valley.
Several disturbances will move along this front over the 
weekend. A stronger area of low pressure extends a cold front 
across the area Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Only a few showers/sprinkles persist across NW OH from the
earlier thunderstorms across IN into SW OH. Main thing to watch
now is the convection over MI as 5H jet assists with keeping
this activity going overnight. Will need to monitor outflow from
these thunderstorms drifting onto and across Lake Erie
overnight. They may impact NE OH into NW PA late tonight through
mid morning Friday.  

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will continue to exit eastward tonight as low
pressure centered over Middle Mississippi Valley extends a warm
front southeastward. This low and its warm front will move
northeastward toward the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
region tonight into the day on Friday. An MCS currently situated
over the border between Illinois and Indiana along the warm
front is currently tracking eastward. LAPS corfidi vectors over
the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region indicate that this
cluster of storms will dive southeast away from our area of 
responsibility by late this evening. 

Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms in the near term 
looks to come Friday as low pressure centered over Ontario 
swings a cold front across the lower Great Lakes region. This 
front should provide enough lift at the surface in addition to 
mid level disturbances and dew points Friday afternoon rising 
into the upper 60s to low 70s to support convection later Friday
afternoon. 

Warm overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s both tonight
and Friday night as the warm front pushes northward. 
Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s by Friday 
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough over the Central Plains will move east over 
the Great Lakes region by Sunday. This feature should be responsible 
for surface low pressure moving quickly east through the Ohio 
Valley. Ample moisture associated with this feature is expected to 
move into the area over the weekend.  Fairly strong warm air 
advection should move into the region by Saturday night along with 
some fairly high dewpoint temperatures climbing into the middle and 
then upper 60s. Overall, it will start to really feel like summer as 
temperatures climb into the middle and upper 80s over much of the 
area Saturday but lower 80s over northwest Pennsylvania.  Some 
instability will develop across the area in the warm and humid air 
mass.  Model soundings indicate a very moist sounding for Saturday 
and Saturday night with precipitable water values around 1.7 inches 
and warm cloud depth over 11,000 feet.  Will likely see some locally 
heavy downpours in any convection that occurs across the area. 
Conditions to support very heavy rain come into alignment for Sunday 
with a better chance during the early morning and during the day. 
So, will need to monitor convection for any flash flooding potential 
if rainfall rates become excessive. Low pressure settles in along 
the East Coast by Monday and some moisture will still be thrown back 
west over the eastern portions of the forecast area by late in the 
day. This should allow chances for precipitation to diminish 
slightly through the day Monday from west to east. Otherwise, 
temperatures should trend downward slightly through the period to 
highs Sunday in the middle to upper 70s most of the area and lower 
80s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the upper level trough exits to the east, a weak ridge is 
expected to build east into the local area by Wednesday. This should 
result in surface high pressure building east across the Ohio Valley 
by Wednesday morning. Drier air associated with the ridge and 
surface high should bring a return to drier weather Tuesday 
afternoon and Tuesday night. However, an approaching warm front is 
expected to impact the local area by late Wednesday into Thursday 
with some limited moisture associated. There is a threat for another 
round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. 
Relatively high dewpoints are expected during the period and 
maintaining levels in the upper 60s again.  Moist atmosphere will 
likely keep a threat for some heavy downpours once again with any 
thunderstorms that develop.  A wet pattern continues through the 
middle of the week. Temperatures are expected to climb well into the 
80s for highs again by midweek.  Overnight lows holding in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A wind shift out of a more west-southwest direction behind a
warm front is blowing smoke out from the west early this
morning. Still have MVFR to IFR vsby from CLE and MFD points
east, but models are in good agreement in the wind shift and
improvement in vsby gradually shifting east through early this
afternoon, so show gradual improvement through this morning in
vsby in anticipation of this trend. Otherwise, moisture 
advection along and just behind the warm front is beginning to 
cause a stratus deck to develop from parts of northern IN into 
northwestern OH early this morning. These clouds are expected to
expand, lower to low MVFR/patchy IFR, and shift east through 
this morning. Cigs will improve from west-southeast to east- 
northeast later this morning as these clouds continue to lift 
out. Included IFR TEMPOs at TOL and MFD where confidence is a 
bit higher in it occurring. 

Once the stratus/smoke gradually lift out, main potential for
any restrictions would be associated with showers/thunderstorms.
Not too high on shower/storm chances through the day Friday,
though activity may be a bit more scattered from extreme 
northeast OH into northwest PA during the afternoon with 
isolated pop-up activity possible away from the lakeshore 
between about 18-0z. Confidence not high enough to include any 
mention at any sites yet at the moment. Activity may 
develop/spread in from the west 0-6z Saturday, but again not 
enough confidence to put in yet.

Winds shift from the southeast to a more west-southwest
direction as a warm front lifts across the region through this
morning. Winds remain west-southwest through the day at under 
10 knots. A lake breeze boundary should produce northerly winds 
along the lakeshore this afternoon, only impacting ERI and 
possibly CLE. Speeds may reach 12 knots or so along the 
lakeshore. 

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms
overnight tonight through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake looks like it should remain quiet through the next 5 days. 
Winds will be variable in direction through the period as well. Only 
real issue to deal with is the threat for showers and thunderstorms 
into the weekend.  No headlines expected during this forecast 
period.

After 34 years working in National Weather Service I am signing this 
discussion for the last time.  It has been truly a great honor and 
pleasure to serve all of you over the years making sacrifices to 
ensure your safety from the weather that affects northern Ohio and 
northwest Pennsylvania. Thank you for all of the wonderful memories 
from the occasions I was able to meet you at SKYWARN and other 
talks. You can be assured, you have the best people watching over 
you in this agency. They are extremely dedicated and passionate 
about their work. I know this agency is in good hands and wish all 
of my colleagues the very best! So long everybody!

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson/MM
NEAR TERM...Iverson/MM
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Lombardy