352 
FXUS64 KAMA 111924
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

The main focus for this short-term period will be what may happen in 
the southern Texas Panhandle later this afternoon into the early 
evening, and possible supercells that may enter the Oklahoma 
Panhandle this evening, possibly lasting through the night.

An outflow boundary pushed through the Panhandles last night and was 
situated in Lubbock's CWA this morning, leaving mostly easterly 
winds in its wake. A cold front has pushed south through the 
northern half of the Texas Panhandle this morning and is slowly 
moving through the southern Texas Panhandle. As of 1:30 PM, cumulus
have begun to develop generally along I-40 west of Amarillo, and 
some recent near-term and mesoscale models are suggesting this may
be the area where an isolated thunderstorm may develop later. If 
a thunderstorm manages to develop and it sustains an updraft, it 
would become supercellular given likely moderate instability and 
seasonably strong wind shear. Primary hazards would be large hail,
damaging winds, and heavy rain that may contribute to additional 
flooding/flash flooding. The thunderstorm threat in the southern 
Texas Panhandle should begin to decrease in general after 7 PM. 

Thunderstorms originating from the Rockies late this afternoon 
should move east-southeast or southeast into the Oklahoma Panhandle 
early this evening. The expectation is that, as these thunderstorms 
encounter a more unstable and more strongly sheared environment, 
they will become supercellular. Large to very large hail will be 
possible as well as winds up to 60 mph and heavy rain that may lead 
to flash flooding. There may be an hour or two window for a low 
chance for a tornado in the western half of the Oklahoma Panhandle 
when the supercell/supercells are surface-based while the nocturnal 
LLJ begins to kick in. Afterward, the primary hazards will be large 
hail, probably with a diminished risk for 2" hail, and damaging 
winds. This activity should continue to move east-southeast or 
southeast through the evening and perhaps throughout the night with 
a gradually diminishing severe risk. All that said, there is some
uncertainty about where this activity will track. If a strong 
mesocyclone can develop early, there may be more southeasterly 
storm motion earlier. Meanwhile, a couple mesoscale models keep 
thunderstorm activity further north into Kansas. This uncertainty 
likely won't be resolved until the supercell/supercells are 
ongoing. 

Won't rule out thunderstorms again Monday, but there is too much 
uncertainty to dive too deep at the moment. Depending on the 
intensity and coverage of the thunderstorms later this afternoon 
through tonight, it may take some time tomorrow for the atmosphere 
to recover, if it happens at all. Nonetheless, CAMs suggest a 
dryline should set up somewhere in the vicinity of the southwestern 
Panhandles to perhaps far eastern New Mexico. If the atmosphere is 
able to sufficiently destabilize and the cap is able to be breached, 
more thunderstorms will be possible. If it were to happen, current 
thinking is that the northwestern Panhandles would be most favored.
However, details will likely change. 

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the main upper level low is 
expected to traverse the south central plains states on a track 
just north of the OK and TX Panhandles and in a much weakened
state. Should this verify, then slight chc to chc pops for the OK
Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle as depicted by the NBM 
look plausible. Latest 12Z model guidance suggests this particular
storm system should be east northeast of the region by around 00Z
Wednesday, so have gone with the NBM non-mentionable pops for 
Tuesday night at this time. 

Dry weather appears to be in the offing area-wide for Wednesday 
through Friday afternoon at this time as heights slowly rise and 
westerly flow aloft develops with precipitation progged to remain 
just north and east of the region. Another minor upper level
shortwave trof may graze north central and northeast sections of
the forecast area Friday evening, and the NBM slight chc pops in 
those sections seem reasonable. Dry weather returns for Saturday 
across the region. Temperatures will be rising to around or even 
slightly above normal for this time of year by late this week into
the weekend. Medium range models and associated ensembles are in 
reasonable agreement today with the above synoptic scenario and 
were accepted. 

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

There's a low chance for a thunderstorm at KAMA between 21z and
02z, but confidence is far too low to include in the TAF at the 
moment. Will make amendments if confidence increases. 
Thunderstorms will be possible at KDHT and KGUY generally between 
00z and 09z. The window for thunderstorms will likely be only a 
few hours, but given low confidence in timing, will keep the 
window broad and will defer more precise timing to a later cycle 
or amendments if confidence increases. For each terminal, have 
placed VCSH where thunderstorms will be possible for now. 
Otherwise... ceilings will drop out of VFR around 09z to 10z and 
will continue to lower. Some visibility restrictions may be 
possible, but higher confidence is currently in low ceilings which
may linger through the morning and potentially into the 
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  77  59  81 /  20  10  10  10 
Beaver OK                  59  71  56  74 /  40  30  50  30 
Boise City OK              57  69  54  74 /  60  30  40  20 
Borger TX                  62  78  61  81 /  30  10  20  10 
Boys Ranch TX              60  79  58  81 /  20  10  10  10 
Canyon TX                  60  78  57  83 /  20  10  10  10 
Clarendon TX               61  77  61  81 /  20  10  10  10 
Dalhart TX                 57  73  55  77 /  40  20  30  10 
Guymon OK                  58  70  56  74 /  50  20  40  20 
Hereford TX                60  84  56  84 /  10  10  10   0 
Lipscomb TX                58  73  57  75 /  30  20  40  20 
Pampa TX                   59  74  59  78 /  20  10  20  10 
Shamrock TX                61  77  61  80 /  20  20  20  10 
Wellington TX              63  80  62  82 /  20  10  10  10 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52