708 
FXUS62 KFFC 100335 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1135 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

The forecast remains on track this evening with just minor tweaks
made to the next few hours of T, Td, and RH. A clear to mostly 
clear sky is expected across the CWA overnight with morning lows 
in the lower 50s to mid-60s.

Martin


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Morning cloud cover has cleared the area leaving sunny skies in 
its wake, outside of a few cu that have popped with the afternoon 
PBL mixing. Despite relatively light sfc winds, smoke has mostly 
cleared, though HRRR smoke model still indicates some smoke in 
place through the atmospheric column and we've seen a few weather 
stations still reporting the occasional haze. This will stay in 
place until Canadian airmass pushes out starting tomorrow into 
tomorrow night.

Speaking of the Canadian airmass - we have some very unusually 
dry air in place across much of the CWA. Tonight's 00Z sounding 
will be interesting to see. HREF ensemble average shows PWATs 
around 0.4"- 0.6". This would break the all time low PWAT for the 
date, and is well below the 10th percentile running average for 
this time of year per the (new and improved, go check it out!) SPC
sounding climatology. Dry airmass and clear skies will also 
contribute to some very cool temps for June tonight as radiational
cooling takes over, bringing temps well into the 50s across all 
but the far southern portions of central Georgia.

Our respite from the heat and humidity is short lived, however. 
Tomorrow we see sfc winds swap back to the south as the large 
upper level low over the NE begins to meander to the east, away 
from the eastern CONUS. Sfc moisture will return, alongside 
chances of rain, which should slowly increase through tomorrow 
night.

Lusk


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

No changes made to the extended forecast. By Sunday the main 
trough will have moved well of the east coast into the Atlantic 
which will set us up for the pattern ahead which will be more 
unsettled than the short term. An upper level low forms over the 
Great lakes bringing troughing through the central plains Sunday 
before the low deepens and the trough swings eastward into the the
southeast and Georgia on Monday. This upper level feature equates
to a cold front moving through our area Sunday into Monday which 
during this time of year is expected to provide some level of 
forcing that could give us more organized thunderstorms than the 
normal summertime pop up storms. The timing is in favor for this 
area though for severe weather as the instability is more 
prominent during the afternoon whereas the front is more expected 
overnight at this time. 

Following the frontal passage the low pressure system is expected
to stall in the Canadian Maritimes and the front is also expected
to stall over central and southern Georgia. This will overall put
us in a westerly pattern with moisture being fueled in from this 
direction. THe exact positioning of this front will determine how 
much rainfall we get through the end of next week. at this time 
daily afternoon into evening rain chances and thunderstorms can be
expected for much of next week with QPF value in the 0.5-2" range
for much of the area. MAx temps are expected to stay in the mid 
80s for northern Georgia and the upper 80s for central Georgia. 
There could be a bit of variation over the next couple of days 
depending on where the frontal system stalls out. 

Hernandez/01


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with no convection
expected at any of the TAF sites. SKC is expected overnight with 
FEW to SCT diurnal Cu developing tomorrow (Saturday). A wind shift
to NE is progged to occur around 01z tonight at ATL. Winds will 
be less than 4 kts overnight then gradually shift from SE to SW 
over the course of late tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Wind
speeds will be 4-8 kts tomorrow. Yet another wind shift back to 
SE is expected around 03z Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on wind shift timing Saturday evening.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  87  65  83 /   0   0  10  70 
Atlanta         61  88  68  84 /   0   0  20  80 
Blairsville     52  81  59  78 /   0   0  10  80 
Cartersville    55  88  65  84 /   0   0  20  80 
Columbus        63  91  69  87 /   0  10  20  70 
Gainesville     57  86  65  82 /   0   0  20  80 
Macon           62  91  68  88 /   0  10  20  70 
Rome            55  89  65  86 /   0   0  20  80 
Peachtree City  58  89  66  85 /   0  10  20  80 
Vidalia         64  91  69  91 /   0  10  10  60 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Martin