National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDMPX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDMPX
Product Timestamp: 2023-06-09 09:57 UTC
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399 FXUS63 KMPX 090957 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 457 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into Saturday evening. Pockets of heavy rain possible but no severe weather is expected. - Dry weather expected Sunday through Wednesday. - Near normal temperatures through Saturday, cooler on Sunday, followed by above normal temperatures returning for the rest of next week. A cold front draped nearly east-west over far southern Canada is expected to slowly drop southeast across the Upper Midwest from this afternoon through Saturday evening. Heightened lift associated with the front within an anomalously moist atmosphere will increase chances for showers/thunderstorms for the entire WFO MPX coverage area, especially late tonight through most of Saturday. PWATs will increase to nearly 1.5", rendering moot any low level dry air that may be encountered by the advancing front. With little in the way of upper level support to promote the development of strong-severe thunderstorms, that lack of shear and cold air aloft will allow for slower storm motions and the capacity to produce pockets of heavier rain in hit-and-miss coverage. High chance of rain with this frontal passage will be during the day on Saturday, mainly due to the formation of a weak low pressure center along the boundary on Saturday morning while it is in southern MN/WI. The front will move south of the coverage area Saturday evening, allowing precipitation chances to steadily diminish with no precipitation expected by daybreak Sunday morning. High pressure then will settle in from the north behind the front, expanding its influence over the Upper Midwest to keep any organized systems away from the area, promoting another extended period of dry weather through the middle of next week. The main consequence may be an continued expansion of drought conditions across the Upper Midwest, particularly if less-than- expected rainfall comes from the weekend frontal passage. One additional consequence of the frontal passage Saturday into Saturday night may be the return of upper level smoke from Canadian wildfires. HRRR smoke fields indicate a fair amount of upper level smoke being dragged south across MN/WI behind the front, but there is also some potential for near-surface smoke Saturday afternoon- evening in western MN into the Dakotas. Still plenty of uncertainty in how this evolves but will monitor the potential and collaborate with MPCA/WIDNR as necessary. As for temperatures, pre-frontal passage temperatures for today and Saturday will run near normal, with some variation possible on Saturday due to the cloud/rain complications expected. With the frontal passage, modest cold air advection is expected which will bump temperatures down out of the 80s and into the 70s area-wide for Sunday. As western CONUS ridging expands eastward during the first half of next week, even with it slowly flattening, the higher H5 heights will promote warming to above normal levels by the middle of next week. This will include high temperatures in the 85-90 degree range for nearly the entire coverage area Tuesday-Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms moving far enough into southwestern MN Friday evening to reach RWF. As such, have added a PROB30 at RWF for -TSRA Friday evening with possible MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected elsewhere the entire period with mid- level clouds building in during Friday. Light southeasterly to variable winds overnight will become southwesterly by Friday afternoon at 5-10 knots. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR with SHRA/TSRA possible. Wind variable 5-10 kts becoming NE 10-15 kts. Sun...VFR. Wind NE 10-15G25 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPC AVIATION...CTG