AFOS product AFDMPX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMPX
Product Timestamp: 2023-06-09 09:57 UTC

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FXUS63 KMPX 090957
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
457 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES: 

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon 
  into Saturday evening. Pockets of heavy rain possible but no severe
  weather is expected.

- Dry weather expected Sunday through Wednesday.

- Near normal temperatures through Saturday, cooler on Sunday,
  followed by above normal temperatures returning for the rest of 
  next week.

A cold front draped nearly east-west over far southern Canada is
expected to slowly drop southeast across the Upper Midwest from this
afternoon through Saturday evening. Heightened lift associated with
the front within an anomalously moist atmosphere will increase 
chances for showers/thunderstorms for the entire WFO MPX coverage 
area, especially late tonight through most of Saturday. PWATs will 
increase to nearly 1.5", rendering moot any low level dry air that 
may be encountered by the advancing front. With little in the way of 
upper level support to promote the development of strong-severe 
thunderstorms, that lack of shear and cold air aloft will allow for 
slower storm motions and the capacity to produce pockets of heavier 
rain in hit-and-miss coverage. High chance of rain with this frontal 
passage will be during the day on Saturday, mainly due to the 
formation of a weak low pressure center along the boundary on 
Saturday morning while it is in southern MN/WI. The front will move 
south of the coverage area Saturday evening, allowing precipitation 
chances to steadily diminish with no precipitation expected by 
daybreak Sunday morning. High pressure then will settle in from the 
north behind the front, expanding its influence over the Upper 
Midwest to keep any organized systems away from the area, promoting 
another extended period of dry weather through the middle of next 
week. The main consequence may be an continued expansion of drought 
conditions across the Upper Midwest, particularly if less-than- 
expected rainfall comes from the weekend frontal passage.

One additional consequence of the frontal passage Saturday into
Saturday night may be the return of upper level smoke from Canadian 
wildfires. HRRR smoke fields indicate a fair amount of upper level 
smoke being dragged south across MN/WI behind the front, but there is
also some potential for near-surface smoke Saturday afternoon- 
evening in western MN into the Dakotas. Still plenty of uncertainty 
in how this evolves but will monitor the potential and collaborate 
with MPCA/WIDNR as necessary.

As for temperatures, pre-frontal passage temperatures for today and
Saturday will run near normal, with some variation possible on
Saturday due to the cloud/rain complications expected. With the
frontal passage, modest cold air advection is expected which will
bump temperatures down out of the 80s and into the 70s area-wide for
Sunday. As western CONUS ridging expands eastward during the first
half of next week, even with it slowly flattening, the higher H5
heights will promote warming to above normal levels by the middle of
next week. This will include high temperatures in the 85-90 degree
range for nearly the entire coverage area Tuesday-Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms moving far enough into
southwestern MN Friday evening to reach RWF. As such, have added a
PROB30 at RWF for -TSRA Friday evening with possible MVFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected elsewhere the entire period with 
mid- level clouds building in during Friday. Light southeasterly to 
variable winds overnight will become southwesterly by Friday 
afternoon at 5-10 knots.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR with SHRA/TSRA possible. Wind variable 5-10 kts becoming 
NE 10-15 kts. 
Sun...VFR. Wind NE 10-15G25 kts. 
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...CTG