154 
FXUS64 KMOB 240032
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
732 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Convection has mostly diminished across the region early this
evening except for one isolated cell lingering just west of KMOB.
This storm is weakening and is moving southwest of the terminal.
MVFR to very localized IFR ceilings are expected to develop this
evening and persist through the overnight and early Wednesday
morning hours. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA may develop again
Wednesday afternoon with the best coverage focused near the coast.
/21  

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Weak shortwaves aloft continue to move over the area through the 
period. At the surface, a backdoor cold front associated with a 
weakening CAD wedge across the Carolinas continues to approach the 
area from the northeast through tonight. This feature will continue 
to be the focus for shower and storm development through tonight. 
Through the evening, the main hazard will be gusty winds, frequent 
lightning, and heavy rainfall given adequate CAPE around 1000-
2000J/kg and bulk shear around 30kts. Any chance for stronger storms 
wanes quickly after sunset, particularly as the cold front 
progresses to the southwest of the area by mid to late evening, 
although some guidance is suggesting the front may not fully move 
out of the area until tonight into Wednesday. Regardless, cooler and 
drier air will slowly move into the region through the period in its 
wake. Staying with NBM guidance given the recent trend changes, 
which keeps a few residual showers into tonight. On Wednesday, with 
the front remaining generally nearby and the weak impulses moving 
across the area, the NBM keeps PoPs slight to chance during the 
afternoon (highest for the southern half, decreasing further north). 
Expect conditions to dry out moving into the short term. 

For temps, lows tonight are forecast to be cooler with upper 50s 
over the far north increasing to the low/mid 60s as you move south 
towards the coast. Highs on Wednesday continue to be a challenging 
forecast given the residual cloud cover and the front potentially 
not making it fully out of the area just yet. Some guidance remains 
on the warmer end with upper 70s further north to mid 80s further 
south, while others have mainly upper 70s across the entire area.
Will continue to lean towards NBM which keeps temps generally in 
the upper 70s with some low 80s. Lastly, rip current risk remains 
low across the area through Wednesday. JEH/88

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Strong sfc ridging from the northeast down the east side of the
Appalachian Mountains will result in a northeasterly flow that
will bring a drier and cooler airmass into the area. Precipitable
water values drop below 1 inch through Friday. The upper level
trough over the eastern states begins to evolve into an upper low
over the southeast states by Friday night with a continued dry
northwesterly flow. This will keep conditions rain-free through 
the period. Lows will be in the mid and upper 50s inland to mid 
and upper 60s along the coast. HIghs Thursday and Friday will be
in the mid and upper 80s. /13

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

The upper low over the southeast gradually moves northeast through
early next week. At the sfc, a ridge of high pressure will remain
over the eastern states before gradually weakening early next 
week. This will maintain a dry northwesterly flow aloft and a
northerly flow at the sfc. This pattern will likely maintain dry 
conditions over the forecast area through the period. /13 

MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

A mainly light to occasionally moderate offshore flow will 
continue to prevail through Thursday outside of light diurnal 
onshore flow expected near the coast during the afternoon hours with 
the seabreeze. By the end of the week, the prevailing flow will then 
transition to more onshore with a slight build in seas. No weather 
impacts are expected into the mid and late part of the week other 
than locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. JEH/88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      63  79  62  87  62  87  63  86 /  30  30  10   0   0   0  10  20 
Pensacola   66  79  66  85  66  84  67  83 /  50  40  10   0   0   0  10  10 
Destin      67  80  67  83  67  82  67  80 /  50  40  10   0   0   0  10  10 
Evergreen   60  78  56  83  57  83  58  83 /  30  20   0   0   0   0  10  10 
Waynesboro  60  78  58  85  59  85  60  84 /  10  10   0   0   0  10  10  20 
Camden      58  79  56  83  57  83  58  82 /  30  10   0   0   0  10  10  10 
Crestview   62  80  59  85  60  85  60  84 /  50  40   0   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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