174 
FXUS64 KMOB 152328
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Showers and storms diminish this evening leaving dry conditions 
for the overnight hours. Scattered to potentially numerous showers
and storms are anticipated to redevelop on Tuesday, mainly during
the afternoon hours. Light and variable winds tonight become west
to southwest 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday. MVFR conditions will 
accompany the stronger showers and storms, and IFR to LIFR 
conditions are possible in late night fog, otherwise VFR 
conditions are expected to prevail. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Through the period, ridging aloft gradually moves out of the
region as it is pushed southward toward the Gulf by a series of 
troughs making their way into the eastern CONUS, and with this, 
rain chances gradually rise. PoP chances remain unchanged through 
the rest of this afternoon and into the evening. Tomorrow, as the 
ridging pushes further south of the region, and we become more 
moist (on the wetter side of the ridge) due to southwest flow 
aloft returning, expecting slightly higher PoP chances compared to
today. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough aloft looks to approach the
region, along with weak surface troughing looking to sag into the
area. With this, we may see a quicker start inland as this occurs
through the day. Again, still expecting storms to follow a usual 
summertime pattern, starting along the afternoon seabreeze around 
the I-10 corridor then slowly drifting inland as outflow 
boundaries collide. As with most summertime storms, there remains 
a potential for some gustier winds, especially given the weakening
ridge which will allow for some deeper storms. However, we are 
still not expecting much in terms of severe through the period. 

As for temperatures, highs this afternoon continue to climb over 
some areas with 90s spread across the area, except at the immediate 
coast due to water influence. As for lows tonight, once again 
expecting upper 60s to low 70s area-wide. On Tuesday, highs should 
cool slightly back into the upper 80s to near 90 with increasing 
cloud cover and PoP chances expected earlier in the day. JEH/88

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

An upper level trough will very slowly progress eastward across
our region during the Tuesday night and Wednesday period. A weak
surface boundary will also sag southward into our forecast area
late Tuesday night into the day Wednesday. Ample moisture will
remain in place over our region through Wednesday with PWATs
between 1.6 and 1.9 inches across the majority of the CWA.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to 
linger Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with the upper trough 
axis remaining overhead and the surface boundary making its way 
into our area. Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to 
become more numerous in coverage Wednesday afternoon with diurnal 
heating and increasing instability along the boundary, with POPs 
ranging between 50-80%. A few storms could be locally strong and 
also capable of producing heavy rainfall.

Isolated showers and storms will linger into Wednesday evening 
along and southeast of I-65 before the axis of deeper moisture 
gradually shifts to our south along with the advancing boundary, 
followed by dry weather conditions after midnight Wednesday night 
through noon Thursday. A second faster moving shortwave will pass
over the region on Thursday, shifting east of our area Thursday 
night. With PWATs lowering to between 1.4 and 1.7 inches, shower 
and thunderstorm coverage will be lower Thursday afternoon 
compared to Wednesday, ranging from 20% across our western zones 
to around 50% across our eastern zones.
 
High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will trend a little 
cooler in the lower to mid 80s over most our area considering the 
increased cloud and convective coverage. Lows Wednesday and
Thursday nights may trend a little cooler in the lower to mid 60s
inland and in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees closer to the coast 
behind the front. /22

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Shortwave ridging aloft should build over the area Friday and
Friday night behind the exiting trough, resulting in a brief dry 
period Thursday night through noon Saturday. A stronger upper 
trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the Upper Midwest 
and Great Lakes regions late in the week, and likely send another 
frontal boundary southward across our forecast area during the 
Saturday or Saturday night time frame. This will result in 
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Sunday afternoon. Only a few showers 
and thunderstorms are expected for Monday afternoon. Highs each 
day should generally continue to range in the 80s while lows each 
night mostly range in the 60s. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

No marine impacts are expected through the forecasted 
period. Expect a light diurnal flow to persist through Tuesday, with 
light onshore winds during the day, and light offshore winds during 
each night. Shower and storm chances will likely increase across the 
nearshore waters thereafter, with a light to moderate westerly to 
southwesterly flow returning through mid-week. JEH/88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  89  68  86  66  86  66  85 /  40  60  30  70  20  20  10  10 
Pensacola   72  86  72  84  69  83  69  82 /  30  50  30  50  20  30  10  10 
Destin      74  84  73  84  71  83  70  83 /  30  40  30  50  20  30  10  10 
Evergreen   68  89  66  84  63  85  63  84 /  40  70  40  80  10  50  10  10 
Waynesboro  68  89  66  84  63  85  64  85 /  30  60  40  70  10  20   0  10 
Camden      68  89  65  82  61  83  62  82 /  30  60  40  60  10  40  10  10 
Crestview   70  90  68  86  65  87  64  86 /  40  60  30  70  20  50  10  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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