745 
FXUS63 KDDC 011902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night) 
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

April starts where March left off...dry. Infrared satellite
imagery at midday depicted a perfectly clear sky across all of
Kansas. Surface high pressure over western Oklahoma at midday will
move east across Oklahoma through sunset, allowing southerly
return flow to resume this afternoon. The strongest south winds
will focus across western counties, where some gusts will exceed 
30 mph before sunset. Afternoon temperatures will be mild,
pleasant and not far from normal for the first day of April, in
the 60s. 

The sky will remain clear tonight in a dry atmosphere. South 
winds will remain elevated and gusty through the night, as the 
boundary layer remains mixed by a stout low level jet. 12z NAM 
forecasts 850 mb (2k ft AGL) winds as high as 70 mph tonight, 
which will translate to surface gusts in the 30-35 mph much of the
night. The mixing will prevent full radiational cooling, with 
most locations remaining several degrees above normal, in the 
upper 30s and lower 40s sunrise Sunday. 

A fantastic spring Sunday will be enjoyed, under zonal flow aloft
and with a weak surface pressure gradient. Expect few if any
clouds and light winds. All models depict strong warming Sunday,
with 850 mb temperatures rebounding to near 17C northeast, 18C at
DDC, and 21C southwest, supporting afternoon temperatures well
into the 70s. Lower 80s are forecast adjacent to Oklahoma, and
with a bit of westerly downslope momentum and the parched soils, 
the favored Red Hills near Ashland will achieve 83-84.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Key Messages: 

-The forecast is dry with no drought relief expected.
-A high impact wind/dust/wildfire danger event is probable 
 Tuesday.

The next strong cold upper trough will dig into the Great Basin
Monday, with strong lee cyclogenesis expected in the SE Colorado
vicinity. Winds will back SEly and increase at most locations
Monday as this cyclogenesis proceeds, while simultaneously a
stationary frontal boundary will firm up through the afternoon,
bisecting the CWA with cooler temperatures north, warmer south.
NBM appears reasonable with its assessment of mid 60s along I-70,
ranging to lower 80s adjacent to Oklahoma. Southwest winds are
expected across far southwest Kansas, southeast of the SE Colorado
surface low, Monday afternoon. Here, some of the warmest
temperatures and driest air are expected, along with some blowing
dust potential. 

Strong surface cyclone near 985 mb will remain anchored in the
vicinity of Baca county, Colorado through Monday night into
sunrise Tuesday, as the upper trough strengthens to a 532 dm
closed cyclone over southern Wyoming. South winds will remain
elevated and as such, sunrise temperatures Tuesday will be mild
and springlike, with many locations remaining above 50. 

Model consensus tracks the strong surface cyclone to near Hays at
midday Tuesday, to near Omaha 7 pm Tuesday. Another high wind/dust
and wildfire episode is expected Tuesday, in the dry sector of the
ejecting cyclone. Depending on exact timing coordination with the
trough ejection and the diurnal heating cycle, high impacts from
wind, dust and fire are possible. Current thinking, supported by
NBM, keeps most zones in the warm sector with intense southwest
winds through at least mid afternoon, until the cold front begins
entering the northwest zones late afternoon with a west/northwest
wind shift. Given the pervasive exceptional drought and the primed
environment for dust generation across the southwest zones into
the West Texas source regions, placed plenty of dust in the grids
for Tuesday. Limited visibility and dust headlines are likely. 
NBM wind/wind gust grids appear reasonable, and are already near
high wind warning criteria (sustained 40 mph, gusts to 58 mph) 
with the worst wind/dust combination expected during the 10am-3pm
time range. A high wind watch will need to be considered by future
shifts. 

Strong cold front will blast through Tuesday evening with intense
northwest winds. Strong cold advection will drive air temperatures
well down through the 20s by sunrise Wednesday. A hard freeze is
expected for all zones Wednesday morning, with wind chills down to
near +10. Wednesday daytime temperatures will be well below
normal, but early April sunshine will still deliver lower to mid
50s. 

Models hint at a reinforcing cold surge down the high plains and
Front Range courtesy of a strong surface high building southward,
resulting in another widespread hard freeze Thursday morning in
the 20s. Thursday's temperatures will again be below normal in the
50s, but winds will be light. Finally, strong warming will return
Friday with south winds returning under dry WNW flow aloft. This
dry WNWly flow aloft is expected to continue, precluding any hope
of rain, and allowing for an occasional shot of cooler air from
the north. The last few deterministic ECMWF runs are bleak
regarding the drought, showing no precipitation through 10 April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

VFR/SKC and good flying weather will continue through this TAF
period. Daytime winds will be relatively light. South winds
tonight will be elevated, gusting 25-28 kts, in response to
boundary layer mixing from a pronounced low level jet. Included
low level wind shear in all TAFs starting around 03-06z Sun. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  41  79  38 /   0   0   0   0 
GCK  66  39  76  36 /   0   0   0   0 
EHA  69  42  79  38 /   0   0   0   0 
LBL  69  41  81  38 /   0   0   0   0 
HYS  67  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0 
P28  69  44  80  46 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for 
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner