678 
FXUS63 KBIS 011503
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1003 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

We have increased temperatures through the late morning as we are
warming slightly faster than forecasted. For now high 
temperatures stayed the same, but will have to see if those also 
need to be adjusted. 

UPDATE Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

For early morning update have removed fog from the forecast as the
little fog that did develop has now dissipated, and appears no
more should form. Remainder of forecast looks fine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Current surface analysis places low over the upper midwest, with
high settling over western portions of the northern plains. Upper
level analysis shows aforementioned low being stacked, with 
modest ridge pushing into the northern plains. A few short waves 
noted in the flow pushing over the Rockies behind the ridge. Over 
our neck of the woods, winds over eastern portions of our area 
have been easing up with the departure of the aforementioned low. 
Otherwise, rather light winds and clear skies prevail. A few 
little patches of fog are noted on satellite over the area, but 
this is not spreading out quite as much as previously though at 
this point.

For today, will keep an eye on the fog situation over the next 
few hours and will have to adjust accordingly if additional 
development does not occur. Otherwise, a rather quiet day is 
expected as the ridge passes over with skies remaining mostly 
sunny. Notably milder temperatures are expected, with 40s over 
much of the west for highs, 30s elsewhere. A southerly breeze over
locations mainly east of Highway 83 may lead to some drifting and
possibly a little blowing snow.

For tonight, aforementioned possible drifting and blowing snow 
may linger into the evening before ceasing. Main focus shifts 
towards the northern half of our area as a previously mentioned 
short wave does its approach and a surface low moves over the 
International border. This will result in some precipitation 
developing, and given the thermal ridge sliding east, warm air 
remains aloft. Thus, some light freezing rain will be a threat 
overnight until the warmer air pushes east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Precipitation chances remain over northern locations through the
day on Sunday as the aforementioned wave closes off, but the 
threat for freezing precipitation will only remain near the Turtle
Mountains to start the day, ending by late morning. What this 
system will bring across the area is wind as the surface low 
deepens, becoming westerly and gusty. This increases the blowing 
snow threat mainly across the eastern half of our area. Over the 
western half, still thinking the warm temperatures from Saturday, 
and even quite mild on Sunday, should cease any blowing snow 
potential. Even further east, if temps warm up it could bring an 
end to any snow moving. Therefore, have only mentioned patchy for 
now. Some snow may linger into Monday over the north as the system
makes a gradual departure, and secondary wave drops through.

Focus then shifts to the very concerning system that we have been
talking about for a while as on Monday the Colorado Low closes off 
before its ejection into the plains and up towards the upper 
Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence continues to increase
on the potential for significant snowfall and strong winds with 
this storm striking a notable portion of our area. Deterministic 
guidance has been very consistent with much of our area being
affected, notably our southern and eastern areas, while 
probabilistic guidance has been increasing chances, and 
maintaining its message that for areas that are affected 
significant snowfall is likely. Confidence is quite high with this
for the James River Valley and south central North Dakota. With 
that said, lately there has been a bit of a trend of confidence 
increasing towards the northwest, so I would not count north 
central and southwest North Dakota out at all. Stay tuned for the 
latest updates for this storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Gusty southerly winds may result in some blowing snow reducing 
visibility over parts of far south central North Dakota into the 
James River Valley affecting the KJMS terminal mainly this
afternoon and this evening. This evening there is a chance for
a mix of some light rain, freezing rain, and snow over northwest
North Dakota, spreading east overnight. Confidence in coverage and
timing is rather low, so just addressed with VCSH in the KXWA and
KMOT TAFs for now. Ceilings will also start lowering over these 
areas overnight. In addition, westerly winds will be on the 
increase over western locations overnight.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS