244 
FXUS63 KIND 011444
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1044 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Main update concerns:
Strong isallobaric pressure rises are pushing through Indiana this 
morning, in the wake of a robust low pressure system. The gradient 
is oriented from the northwest to southeast, which is allowing very 
strong surface winds at the surface. Higher end gusts have easily 
been reaching the surface with the cloud cover being minimal along 
and east of a Kokomo to Terre Haute line, but this will be changing 
as some surface heating occurs and cloud cover expands and thickens 
by early afternoon. Wind gusts should easily mix to the surface 
based off of the current mixing heights touching easily the core of 
higher winds, which should produce gusts at the surface to around 50 
mph or the low 50s. As a result of the higher forecasted winds, we 
have upgraded to a high wind warning through the afternoon. The far 
northwest counties will remain in a wind advisory due to the thicker 
cloud cover already. 

Diurnally driven cloud cover will linger in place through much of 
the early evening hours, before beginning to thin overnight. 
Temperatures will struggle to warm this afternoon, so have held onto 
the current forecast temps in the low/mid 40s. With some moisture 
wrapping around the shortwave, it is possible that some light rain 
showers could occur midday through the afternoon hours, but not 
expecting much more than a passing shower or two.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Deep closed low will progress eastward across the southern Great 
Lakes today. Another vort maxima lobe will rotate through providing 
forcing for ascent, along with residual low level moisture and steep 
lapse rates will result in scattered showers developing by mid-
morning through afternoon. Given the shallow convective nature, and 
thermal profiles, it is possible that some graupel could briefly mix 
in shortly after development in the late morning. This
precipitation will primarily be across the northeast half of the 
area into the evening. 

Preceding this, a cold front will move through during the early 
morning, and as soon as we start mixing into very strong wind aloft 
(i.e., 90-kt 700-mb jet core) strong gusts will start. We will 
continue the Wind Advisory, though as the midlevel speed max moves 
east, wind gusts may lessen some during the afternoon, so gusts up 
to 50 mph may primarily be through early afternoon before subsiding. 

Cold advection should hold temperatures in the low to mid 40s during 
the afternoon.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

We will continue in a progressive low amplitude flow pattern that 
will evolve to split flow before becoming quite amplified by 
Tuesday. This is as an impressive deep trough evolves over west 
and central CONUS. Before this happens, one low amplitude wave 
will interact with returning moisture to bring some rain Monday 
into early Tuesday. 

As strong warm/moist advection regime evolves preceding the intense 
mid-latitude system to our west on Tuesday, more rain will develop. 
We are growing increasingly concerned about episodic severe weather 
across the region, though the details on timing and specifically 
which areas are impacted the hardest are unclear at the moment. 
Current thinking is a dangerous setup of very broad warm sector 
with anomalous moisture and broad low-level jet/strong mass 
response to the main mid-latitude system will bring a risk of 
severe storms to Indiana at least with the frontal passage into 
Wednesday. There may also be severe thunderstorms in our area 
preceding this with either (1) the warm advection regime, or (2) 
associated with a weak midlevel perturbation that moves out of the
Arklatex region Tuesday. The ceiling for this event is high 
across broader region, with the potential for significant severe 
and tornadoes. This may primarily be centered west of Indiana, but
these details will become more clear over the next couple of 
days. 

The synoptic pattern after this system into the latter half of the 
week is a little more uncertain, given growing spread in ensemble 
spaghetti plots and cluster analysis. One possibility is for a 
lifting track and quick modest midlevel height rises keeping 
temperatures at least at climo if not slightly above. We would 
generally be dry as west-northwesterly flow pattern would suppress 
deeper moisture to our south and we would generally experience a 
drier continental air mass. Weak perturbations would only bring 
brief generally light precipitation events into next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 701 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Impacts:

* Strong wind gusts behind a cold front starting early this morning

* Period of MVFR stratus late morning into afternoon

* Decreasing winds late afternoon/evening

Discussion:  

Stratus will increase later this morning behind a cold front, and 
wind gusts will increase considerably as soon as we start mixing. 
Winds should subside gradually this afternoon. MVFR stratus will 
start late morning into the afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028-029-035-
043.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for INZ030-031-
036>042-044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

Update...Beach
Short Term...BRB
Long Term...BRB
Aviation...BRB