324 
FXUS64 KBRO 011104 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
604 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

The strong system working through the Plains will swing east through 
the Great Lakes today, with a bowling ball of low pressure working 
into Baja California, and the subtropical ridge edging west across 
the Southern Gulf, turning 500 mb flow across Deep South Texas more 
zonal into Sunday. A few perturbations in the 500mb flow slide by 
through the short term, with the first arriving this morning and the 
next late this evening into early tonight. The Baja shortwave runs 
from West Texas Sunday morning to Northeast Texas through Sunday 
afternoon. 

At the surface, a weak frontal boundary has pretty much stalled 
across the CRP CWA, and will eventually move further north into 
Sunday. A weak surface low may develop along the front west of 
Zapata and Starr counties, potentially bumping rain chances up as 
the energy aloft flies by. Have still kept POPs generally below 20 
percent this morning into early this afternoon, and again along the 
border this evening into early Sunday morning. Prospects remain dim 
for any real beneficial rainfall. 

High temperatures today may mostly hang on cloud cover and any rain 
late morning into early afternoon, likely still topping mid 80s to 
low 90s for most inland locations. Highs on Sunday should gain a few 
degrees with increased southerly flow and less cloud cover. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions are 
expected until midweek. A nearly zonal flow Sunday night will turn 
southwesterly by Monday night as the next upper level storm system 
moves into the Rockies. At the surface, the pressure gradient will 
strengthen Monday into Tuesday as low pressure moves into the 
Plains. This will enhanced winds over portions of Deep South Texas, 
especially near the coast. A Wind Advisory may be needed on Monday 
for the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The breezy to windy southerly flow 
will also lead to warming temperatures through Tuesday.

The 500mb trough swings over the Northern Plains Tuesday night into 
Wednesday and pushes a cold front into the region late Wednesday 
into Thursday. However, the current forecast does not have the 
frontal boundary making it through Deep South Texas. It is possible 
that the front could stall out to the north or somewhere in Deep 
South Texas. This cold front is anticipated to bring isolated to 
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region as the front 
stalls. Rain chances will linger into Friday and maybe in the 
Saturday with the stalled frontal boundary across the area.

As for temperatures, low temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday 
night will be mostly in the 70s, but there will be some areas in the 
Northern Ranchlands in the upper 60s. Highs Monday and Tuesday will 
range from the 70s at the beaches, the mid to upper 80s near the 
coast and the 90s inland. There is the possibility of triple digit 
temperatures for the Upper Valley and the Brush Country on both of 
these days. High temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday 
with most of Deep South Texas in the upper 80s, with some pockets in 
the the 90s, while the low temperatures will be in the 70s. Thursday 
temperatures will be cooler due to the abundant cloud cover and 
increase in rain chances keeping our highs mostly in the 80s with 
some places being in the upper 70s. The highs for Friday will 
slightly warm up as the rain and clouds become less prevalent over 
the region to the 80s. The lows will be in the range of upper 60s to 
low 70s for Thursday and Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

MVFR conditions are expected to gradually improve with VFR
ceilings by late this morning. Patchy fog may reduce visibility
over the next couple of hours. MVFR ceilings return late this
evening through tonight, with patchy fog towards daybreak Sunday. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Now through Sunday...A long period easterly swell is expected to 
continue through this weekend. A weak frontal boundary may not make 
it this far south and light onshore winds today maintain more 
favorable marine conditions. Winds turn more southerly on Sunday and 
increase slightly into the afternoon, especially across the Laguna 
Madre. Small Craft Caution to borderline Small Craft Advisory 
conditions are expected Sunday afternoon, mainly on the bay, with 
choppy conditions. 

Sunday night through Friday...Generally favorable conditions through 
Monday morning. Winds are expected to increase late Monday into 
Tuesday as the pressure gradient strengthens along the Lower Texas 
Coast. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected for much 
of the period. Low end Small Craft Advisory conditions are also 
possible late Tuesday into Wednesday due to the stronger winds and 
higher seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             84  72  88  72 /  10  10   0   0 
HARLINGEN               89  71  89  72 /  10  10   0   0 
MCALLEN                 89  72  91  73 /  10  20   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY         90  72  94  71 /  20  20   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  71  78  71 /  10  10   0   0 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     82  71  82  71 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...56-Hallman