469 
FXUS63 KDMX 010747
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
247 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Friday/
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Key Messages:

-Spring roller coaster continues
-Snow ending this morning. Wind diminishing this afternoon.
-Warmup Sunday and Monday.
-Next widespread storm chances Tuesday

Wrap-around snow is reducing visibilities to a mile or less upstream 
in northwest IA and southern MN. With the rapid movement of the low, 
snow should be moving out by sunrise. Short range models suggest a 
few snow showers could linger in eastern parts of the CWA until mid 
morning, but impacts would be minimal. Current plan is to let the 
winter weather headlines expire at 7am/12z as the bulk of the 
falling snow should be out of the area by then. If blowing snow 
continues in northern areas as we approach sunrise, will reevaluate.

Wind advisory is a little more in question. Tight pressure gradient 
across the state is associated with the deepening surface low 
lifting rapidly off to the northeast. All indications are that the 
winds over central Iowa will noticeably relax by midday as the 
gradient relaxes and the surface ridge moves in from the west. 
Question will be if the surface wind relaxes enough by sunrise to 
expire the advisory, or if it will need to be extended a bit into 
the morning. Current thinking is that wind gusts should be relaxing 
enough by then, but will monitor and determine best course of action 
later this morning.

Sunday temperatures will make a quick rebound with breezy south 
winds and warm advection ahead of a weak trough passage. Moisture is 
lacking and this should be a dry system.  

Monday the trough looks to stall just to the south and east of the 
area.  Forecast soundings support a chance of rain in southern 
portions of the CWA where there is enough moisture and lift on 
the north side of the trough.  

Tuesday into Wednesday remains the main time frame of concern as 
another rapidly deepening upper low will lift out of the Rockies and 
cross the upper Midwest. As of now it appears that the system will 
be able to tap into the Gulf moisture and bring a chance for 
widespread storms. 


&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Expect deteriorating flying conditions overnight as snow, or a 
rain/snow mix pivots swd out of MN/SD. Widespread MVFR to IFR 
CIGs and VSBYS are expecting over the northern terminals 
/FOD/MCW/ALO/. Further south over DSM/OTM, expecting lighter snow 
showers, with mostly MVFR conditions. Winds will remain very gusty
out of the west overnight into early Sat with sustained winds of 
15 to 25kts with a few gusts over 35 kts possible. After 15-18z 
Saturday, expect VFR conditions to return with diminishing winds.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ004.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ005>007-
015-016.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ017-
023>026.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ027-028-033>039-
044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMD
AVIATION...Fowle