645 
FXUS63 KOAX 271647
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1147 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Key Messages:

 - Well below normal temperatures today. Rain/snow mix possible
   tonight near the NE/KS border, but little if any accumulation 
   expected. 

 - Well above normal temperatures by Thursday. Southeast NE could
   hit the lower 70s. 

 - Thunderstorm chances return Thursday night into Friday, while
   snow chances return to northeast NE Friday with a 30% chance 
   of minor winter impacts.

Quiet weather is expected today with northerly surface flow and
well below normal temperatures with highs mostly in the 40s, but
temps may be limited to the upper 30s/near 40 over the 50 mile
wide area that received the heavy snows Sunday morning. There is
an upper trough moving through the central Rockies, and as that
moves eastward onto the Plains tonight, there is a slight chance
of a rain/snow mixture for southeast NE near the NE/KS border.
However, latest QPF trends suggest little if any snow is expected
in that location, with the better chance for any minor snow 
accumulations farther south across portions of KS and MO.

After lows tonight again mostly in the 20s, Tuesday will again be
a quiet weather day with a little warmer temperatures than today.
Highs over the snowpack should reach the mid 40s, but temps should
reach the lower 50s elsewhere. Winds do shift to the southwest
through the day and increase to 10 to 20 mph. Where snow cover
doesn't exist, fire weather danger could reach the high category,
and possible the very high category across some portions of
northeast NE. 

An upper level clipper system moving through the northern Plains
will push a cold front into the region Tuesday night. Models
suggest there could be some snow behind the front across southern
SD and northern IA late Tuesday night, but that also appears to
remain /just/ north of our forecast area. That front will shift
winds to the northeast at 15 to 25 mph, which cools temps back 
into the 40s for most locations, but feeling much cooler with the 
brisk northeast winds.

That aforementioned frontal boundary should stall across KS and
MO Wednesday, but then begins to lift back into the area Wednesday
night, and then perhaps stalls somewhere across our area Thursday.
This brings a slight chance of a rain/snow mix late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, but then also brings much above
normal temperatures back into the area Thursday afternoon, when
highs could reach the lower 60s to lower 70s across southeast NE.
This will bring a chance of thunderstorms back to the region
Thursday night, with SPC now keeping the severe probabilities
south of the region. 

It's also at this time that snow chances begin to return to the
forecast for northeast NE after midnight. As a strong closed upper
low moves out of the central Rockies, this will induce surface
cyclogenesis along the stalled frontal boundary that then moves
through the region Friday. This frontal boundary will provide a
very large range of temperatures across the forecast area from
north to south. Areas near the NE/SD border might only reach the
mid 30s for highs Friday, but southeast NE and southwest IA could
reach the upper 60s. With a favored surface low track moving
through the central Plains into the mid Mississippi River valley,
northeast NE will have the potential for accumulating snow. WPC
has placed that area in a 10-30% chance for QPF exceeding 0.25",
which could be snow. And our probabilistic WSSI has about a 30%
chance of at least minor impacts, with NBM indicating the
potential for at least 2 inches or more Friday into Friday night.
Still a several days away, and of course the track can and
probably will change, but this will be the next impactful winter 
system we'll be following closely. It appears that March may go 
out like a lamb at least for some locations in northeast NE in our
forecast area.

There is also some uncertainty on the forward speed of this end of
the week strong low pressure system. Current NBM trends suggest
the weekend will be dry with warming temperatures. Highs by Sunday
are forecast to again reach the 60s and 70s, with the highest
readings in southeast NE.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Quiet aviation weather today with negligible wind speeds and VFR
cigs and visibility. Some showers of both rain and snow are
possible overnight along the Kansas state line... but chances at
KOMA and KLNK peak below 15%. At best, a sprinkle / flurry is 
possible in those areas before sunrise. 

Expect southwestern winds to develop over the
course of Tuesday, until then northerly winds persist. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Nicolaisen