226 
FXUS64 KAMA 080127
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
727 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

Due to short term guidance trends in temperatures, sky cover, and
position of the cold front that pushed through the Panhandles this
morning, have moved temperatures for tomorrow toward NAM MOS in
collaboration with neighboring WFOs, which resulted in a reduction
of around 5 to 10 degrees with most areas now unlikely to get out
of the 40s Wednesday. That said, 850mb temperatures should slowly
creep above freezing due to southeasterly winds at this level before
the chance for precip increases in the evening, so am still 
inclined to go with chances for cold rain tomorrow.

Ferguson

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

Currently there is a mid to upper level trough over the
Mississippi River Valley. Upstream is a trough over the PacNW with
the FA under SW flow aloft between these two features. The SW flow
aloft is directing plenty of moisture from the Pacific up this way
keeping the combined Panhandles under a good bit of cloud cover. 
At the surface a stalled frontal boundary is keeping much of the 
combined Panhandles in the 30s to 40s as of this writing. These 
temperatures are not expected to raise too much higher going into
the late afternoon due to the cloud coverage helping to hold the 
frontal boundary in place. Amarillo is currently 48, while areas 
further south are in the low 60s like Tulia, and Dimmitt. To the 
north, across the northern TX Panhandle into the OK Panhandle 
temperatures are hanging out in the mid to upper 30s. Still 
watching the boundary as the slightest shift could be the 
difference of 5 to 10 degrees in the MaxT for some areas today. 
Winds are currently light, less than 10 mph, out of the northeast,
or light and variable. 

Going into the overnight hours the winds will start to veer to a
more easterly direction. Some low level moisture trapped under an
inversion in the northwest combined Panhandles may present a 
slight chance for some drizzle/freezing drizzle in that area. 
The best timing for this will be mainly after midnight tonight 
and closer to sunrise. At the same time some mid level moisture in
the southwest flow aloft may present a slight chance to chance of
light rain in the far southeast TX Panhandle. However, some 
models still suggest the better moisture will stay to the south 
and southeast of the FA. Based on the NAM there could even be a 
rumble of thunder. However, other models do not suggest any 
instability near the area. Overnight, some other areas across the 
combined Panhandles could see brief periods of fog or drizzle. 
However, confidence is higher that the majority of the area will 
only be dealing with low clouds overnight. 

For tomorrow, cloud cover is looking to continue across the area,
with the cold/stationary front hanging on through the afternoon
again. This will create another day of cool temperatures 
especially across the northern combined Panhandles. Heading into
the late afternoon and evening hours winds will continue to veer
becoming southeast. With the upsloping winds from the SE, Td will
start an upward trend with surface moisture increasing. This will
also introduce a slight chance of PoPs to the far southeast TX
Panhandle once again. 

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday night through next Monday) 
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

For Wednesday night, a minor mid level shortwave trof embedded in
the southwest flow aloft is forecast to traverse the region and
could result in a threat for some rain showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms over mainly the eastern one third of the OK and TX 
Panhandles. If storms develop, they will be elevated in nature but
expected to remain below severe levels at this time as CAPE values
will be on the meager side. Slight chance to chance pops in that 
area remain plausible for Wednesday night. In addition, low level
southeast to south winds may help bring in limited amounts of 
moisture to result in the potential for some fog and drizzle 
across parts of the area. Have left this weather element out of 
the grids for this package due to uncertainty where or if this 
might occur. Later shifts may need to consider adding some fog and
drizzle to the weather grids for Wednesday night if forecaster 
confidence improves. 

Warmer temperatures are foreseen on Thursday before another,
weaker cold front tracks through the area Thursday night, leading
to a temporary small setback on temperatures Friday. A return to
downsloping winds Saturday will encourage well above normal
temperatures on that day. Then another cold front is slated to
move across the area Saturday night, with cooler temperatures
Sunday. The next fast moving minor upper level shortwave trof is 
expected to affect the region Sunday night and may bring some
rain showers to the OK and TX Panhandles. Medium range models
differ on handling this particular feature. Therefore, the slight
chc to low end chance pops offered by the NBM seem reasonable for
Sunday night and were incorporated into the grids. Dry weather
returns for Monday and Tuesday. 

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

Likely stratus and potential fog are the primary concerns in the
aviation forecast over the next 24 hours. MVFR stratus is
currently impacting the northeastern Panhandles, including GUY,
with this expected to spread across the region overnight. Expect
both DHT/AMA to experience MVFR ceilings with DHT likely to dip to
at least IFR as well. As for fog, recurrence of fog in the
northwestern Panhandles and adjacent areas of New Mexico is
expected, with visibility reduction possible at DHT. At this time,
conditions should improve temporarily Wednesday afternoon, but
will be watching trends closely as deleterious flying conditions
can hang on longer in the day during periods of sustained easterly
winds.

Ferguson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions may develop Friday afternoon 
over northwestern sections of the area due to south to southwest 
winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts along with minimum 
relative humidity values of 20 to 25 percent. 

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                33  45  41  70 /  10  10  10   0 
Beaver OK                  31  46  37  65 /  10  10  30   0 
Boise City OK              26  44  33  62 /   0   0  10   0 
Borger TX                  32  46  42  72 /  10   0  10   0 
Boys Ranch TX              32  46  40  70 /  20   0  10   0 
Canyon TX                  34  45  41  72 /  10  10  10   0 
Clarendon TX               37  45  43  74 /  20  10  20  10 
Dalhart TX                 28  49  35  66 /  10   0  10   0 
Guymon OK                  28  45  35  65 /   0   0  20   0 
Hereford TX                34  45  42  72 /  10  10  10   0 
Lipscomb TX                32  50  39  69 /  10  10  20   0 
Pampa TX                   31  45  41  70 /  10  10  20   0 
Shamrock TX                36  51  43  73 /  30  10  30  10 
Wellington TX              38  49  44  75 /  40  10  40  10 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...77