259 
FNUS73 KLSX 061232
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Valley View Unit 1...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
632 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CST on February 06. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Southeasterly winds will become southerly and strong by noon today. Winds 
will be sustained 15-20 mph, gusting up to 28 mph. Winds will remain
elevated through Tuesday morning. Temperatures will warm well above normal 
today with highs just at 60. Dewpoint temperatures will increase through
the day, resulting in RH values that dip only into the mid 40s. Deep
vertical mixing is not expected today, mixing is only expected to reach
1000-2000 ft at max. Mixing will break 1000 ft around 11am-12pm. 

Light precipitation is expected across the area overnight into Tuesday
morning as a cold front moves through the region. Winds will shift to
the northwest behind the front. A widespread, soaking rain is expected
across the area overnight Tuesday through Wednesday. Above normal
temperatures will continue through Thursday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming 
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
LAL.................No Tstms. 
Temperature.........30 at ignition...Max 59. 
RH..................96 percent at ignition...Min 47 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 6 mph at 
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 6 to 15 
                    mph. Gusts up to 29 mph late in the morning. 
Eye level winds.....2-5 mph, gusting up to 9 mph using an adjustment factor
					of 0.3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. 
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise max 3000 ft 
                    AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph increasing to south 23 
                    to 31 mph in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /630 m/s-m/ at ignition. Max...good /12930 
                    m/s-m/. 

TIME (CST)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   
Sky (%).........27     35     58     67     81     77     
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0      
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1      
Temp............30     41     51     57     59     56     
RH..............96     76     61     51     49     64     
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 8   SE 11  S 13   S 15   S 15   
20 ft wind gust.11     14     19     23     25     24     
Eye level wind..SE 3   SE 4   SE 5   S 6    S 7    S 7    
Eye lvl wnd gst.5      6      9      10     12     11     
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4    0.6    1.8    2.9    3.0    1.3    
Transport wind..SE 12  SE 14  S 21   S 29   S 31   S 23   
Haines index....5      5      4      4      3      3      
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      7      32     74     82     26     
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   POOR   

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers 
                    overnight. 
Chance of pcpn......40 percent. 
LAL.................No Tstms. 
Temperature.........Min 46. 
RH..................Max 93 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 15 mph with gusts to around 
                    24 mph shifting to the southwest 10 to 12 mph 
                    with gusts to around 20 mph overnight. 
Eye level winds.....3-5 mph, gusting to 7 mph, using an adjustment factor
					of 0.3.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height.......Min 800 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 23 mph shifting to the west 14 
                    to 15 mph after 3 am. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1560 m/s-m). 

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of 
                    rain showers early in the morning. Slight 
                    chance of rain late in the afternoon, then 
                    chance of rain late in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......30 percent. 
LAL.................No Tstms. 
Temperature.........Max 53. 
RH..................Min 61 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph decreasing to around 
                    5 mph late in the afternoon. 
Eye level winds.....1-3 mph, using an adjustment factor of 0.3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large 
                    plume dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height.......Max 2400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 14 mph shifting to the north 
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1270 m/s-m). 

$$
Forecaster...MRM
Requested by...Tim Brown
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2302072.0/LSX
.DELDT 02/06/23
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0