227 
FXUS63 KOAX 231743
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1143 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Key Messages:

 - Patchy dense fog continues across much of the region this
   morning

 - Small chance (20%) for snowfall Tuesday night and periodically
   throughout the weekend. 

 -Odds tilting to below normal temperatures as we head through the
  weekend.

Upper level ridging continues to move overhead in between a 
mid/upper level trough to our east across the Ohio River valley and 
another to our southwest across southern AZ. Patchy dense fog 
continues over portions of the area with some visibilities less than 
a quarter mile at times. Dense fog advisory continues into the 
morning and will trim off areas as  seem fit. Weak southwesterly 
flow at the surface will gradually become northwest later today as a 
quick-moving and fairly weak northern Plains shortwave slides 
southeast across the Dakotas pushing a weak surface frontal boundary 
through the forecast area this afternoon. Dry conditions are 
expected over the next couple of days and we continue to lean 
slightly cooler than guidance for highs as potential cloud cover 
inhibits full warming. 

Focus turns to the above mentioned wave currently over southern 
AZ. This wave is forecast to continue east across Texas and 
eventually into central Missouri by early Wednesday. Model 
ensembles and deterministic solutions continue to bring the 
northern edge of associated precipitation across far southeastern 
Nebraska and portions of western Iowa late Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning. In addition, a secondary northern Plains 
shortwave will slide southeast into the region bringing the chance
for light snow Wednesday in association with this feature. 

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist through late in the week with 
a potential clipper system sliding through this flow and into the 
area Friday. Ahead of this, strong mixing could help send highs into 
the 40s on Friday.  This is a fast moving system and another is 
right on its heels with small chances for accumulating precipitation 
Saturday. 

A pattern change is looking likely as well by the weekend, allowing 
a much colder airmass to move south into the area for Saturday and 
beyond. Low temperatures could drop into the single digits below and 
above zero for Sunday and into the extended with highs in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

The primary aviation concern over the next 24 hours will be low
clouds and fog. MVFR ceilings (1,500 to 2,500 ft AGL) have moved
in at KOFK, and should remain in place through at least 00Z
Tuesday. These conditions should push south through 00Z, arriving
at KOMA and KLNK between 20Z and 22Z today. Forecast confidence 
between 00Z and 12Z Tuesday is lower. Low cloud cover or fog are 
likely (80% chance) during this period, but confidence in which 
occurs is the challenge. For now the TAFs represent a persistence
forecast. Just be aware that if any clearing occurs, then fog 
will become increasingly likely (especially after 09Z Tuesday.)

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Albright