448 
FXUS65 KFGZ 210410
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
910 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cold conditions, with scattered snow showers
for the rest of today. Fair conditions, but cold nights, return
for the weekend. A chance of light snow showers return for
Monday, with very cold temperatures. Fair and chilly for the rest
of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...The upper low has moved off to the east and with it has
gone the snow. Only a few lingering snow showers remain, mainly
from Show Low to St. Johns and into New Mexico. 

In the wake of the departing low, we have seen some intermittent
northerly gusts but those are expected to drop off overnight
before picking back up again during the day on Saturday.

From here on out, expect dry conditions for the weekend with cold
nights in store as the snow won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
Be careful if out at night as the sunny days will allow for
melting to occur and the cold nights will see things freezing 
back up. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /235 PM MST/...A compact and cold upper low will
quickly move east into New Mexico by late this afternoon, with
any remaining snow showers ending this evening.

The upcoming weekend will be free of any precipitation and mostly
sunny, good time to catch up on snow removal.

For Monday, models have settled on a solution that brings a very
cold low straight into Arizona, from the north. This trajectory
contains very little moisture, but the strength of the front and
magnitude of hght falls will generate strong upward motion and
some showers will make to reach the ground. This is most likely
on the eastern flank of the low, which would be roughly southern
Navajo and Apache counties at this time.

More importantly, the low will drop high temperatures into the mid
20s for the high country, with gusty northerly winds. This affects
recovery efforts in snow-covered areas and prolong the deep snow
cover, as melting will be tough to come by.

The remainder of the forecast period will feature northerly flow
aloft, northeast winds and below normal temperatures. It looks dry
for now, but anytime we are in the northerly flow, retrogression
of s/wv energy is possible, we will be on the lookout for cutoff
lows.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z TAF package...Occasional MVFR/IFR cigs and 
vis will be possible in scattered SHSN through 08Z, with primarily 
VFR conditions expected thereafter. Light and variable winds 
overnight, becoming N/NW around 5-10 kts after 18Z. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and cold conditions are expected through much of 
the weekend. Light northerly winds are expected on Saturday, then 
increasing from the west/northwest to around 10-20 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...A slight chance for showers over the 
higher terrain exists on Monday, with continued dry and cold 
conditions otherwise expected. Breezy northerly winds remain on 
Monday, becoming light from the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Peterson
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff