639 
FXUS63 KICT 192232
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
432 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 430 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Highlights: 

1) Near seasonal normal on Friday and cooler for the weekend

2) Rain/snow possible Friday night - Saturday night  

Challenges: Precipitation types and respective accumulation on 
Saturday

The short wave that moved through yesterday is now over the upper 
half of the Mississippi River Valley and headed to the Great Lakes 
region as a brief ridge moves in for Friday over the Central Plains. 
Temperatures will be near to just above seasonal normal with values 
generally in the 40s; there will be lower values in the north 
especially over locations which accumulated snowfall yesterday/last 
night and higher values in the south. 

There is a system developing over the Great Basin which will track 
to the Four Corners tonight. This short wave should trot straight 
east into the High Plains late Friday into early Saturday before 
progressing eastward into the central and southern Plains. This is 
the next system to watch with the potential for a wintry mix 
depending on the thermal profiles. Precipitation chances should move 
in from west to east with most of the precipitation occurring during 
the daytime hours on Saturday for central portions of the state. As 
mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a lack of moisture 
surging this far north except for some in the High Plains. Thus the 
greater potential for accumulating snowfall is in eastern Colorado 
and western Kansas. There is enough gusto or forcing and 
favorable mid level lapse rates which will drive precipitation 
chances to the east. While the main precipitation types appear to 
be rain or snow, there is some concern with the thermal profiles 
and lack of saturation through the dendritic growth zone (cloud 
ice) for a period during the afternoon particularly in southern 
Kansas. Near surface temperatures and wet-bulb temperatures will 
be around the freezing mark which could suggest freezing rain. At 
this point, the rain/snow trend was kept. 

Accumulating snowfall is anticipated with values in ranging from a 
trace in portions of south central Kansas to a couple of inches in 
north central Kansas. There have been slight changes in the snowfall 
amounts with some variation in the respective type given the thermal 
profile. Some uncertainty still remains, so stay tuned particularly 
if you have plans on Saturday especially in northern and western 
Kansas.   

This wave will merge with a northern short wave given a further 
eastward progression as a brief ridge follows for Sunday. 
Temperatures for the weekend are expected to be near and below 
seasonal with values in the mid 30s to mid 40s. If higher snow 
occurs in northern Kansas, temperatures may need to be dropped for 
Sunday a bit.  

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 430 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

Main challenge is next upper trof which is progged to dig southward 
across the western CONUS Sunday into Monday and then eject 
eastward across the Southern Plains during Tuesday. There is 
still enough uncertainty in how far south this system will dig 
before moving eastward early next week with the ECMWF keeping most
of the precip south of Kansas. The GFS branches off some weaker 
shortwaves ahead of the main trof which move over the central 
Plains which may provide earlier/further north chances for some 
mixed/wintry precip across central and eastern Kansas. For now 
will leave options open in showing slight/modest chance PoPs 
Monday night thru Tuesday night with further model runs allowing 
for refinement. Otherwise, it looks like temperatures will average
below climo next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

The primary concerns over the next 24 hours are areas of lingering
MVFR cigs across eastern Kansas this afternoon, and breezy
northwest winds through the afternoon hours.

Persistent MVFR cigs are continuing to linger over portions of
eastern Kansas. Over the next few hours, these clouds should
gradually move eastward, and VFR conditions should prevail after
00Z this evening across the area. Also, breezy northwest winds are
expected area-wide through 00Z as a tight pressure gradient 
remains in relation to the departing storm system. Wind gusts may 
approach 25 to 30 knots at times. After 00Z, winds should relax 
area-wide to around 10 knots out of the northwest.

From 00Z this evening through 18Z tomorrow, VFR conditions should
prevail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    25  48  30  38 /   0   0  10  80 
Hutchinson      24  46  28  36 /   0   0  20  80 
Newton          24  46  28  37 /   0   0  10  80 
ElDorado        25  47  29  38 /   0   0   0  70 
Winfield-KWLD   25  49  31  41 /   0   0  10  70 
Russell         17  42  23  34 /   0   0  40  80 
Great Bend      20  45  25  34 /   0   0  40  80 
Salina          21  42  25  36 /   0   0  10  80 
McPherson       21  46  26  36 /   0   0  10  80 
Coffeyville     25  48  30  46 /   0   0   0  50 
Chanute         24  46  28  44 /   0   0   0  50 
Iola            24  46  28  42 /   0   0   0  50 
Parsons-KPPF    24  48  30  45 /   0   0   0  50 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JC