907 
FXUS64 KMOB 160513
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1113 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period with
the exception of some patchy light overnight fog. A VFR ceiling
near 3.5 kft is expected to spread eastward across the area during
the day on Monday. Calm or light and variable winds overnight
become southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023/ 

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours,
although a deck of clouds near 3.5 kft is anticipated to spread
eastward across the area on Monday. A calm or light southerly flow
tonight becomes southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023/ 

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 429 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Upper ridging over the region tonight will move east of the area 
by early Monday as a shortwave lifts from the Central Plains into 
the upper Mississippi River Valley, resulting in mid and upper 
level flow transitioning to west to southwest through Monday. 
Surface high pressure across our area will shift eastward over 
Florida through Monday, as a cold front approaches (but remains 
west of the area) and a warm front lifts slowly northward out of 
the Gulf and across our area. This will result in an increase to a
southerly surface flow across the area as well as an increase in 
low level moisture. The weak lift associated with the warm front, 
combined with the increasing moisture, will likely result in a 
increase in low to mid level cloud cover late tonight into Monday.
There could be a few light showers over coastal AL and the 
western FL panhandle on Monday, but chances are so low that we 
will leave PoPs out for now. 

We will start to see a moderating trend with regard to temperatures 
during the near term period. Both min temperatures tonight and max 
temperatures on Monday should be at least about 10 degrees warmer 
than today. Lows tonight should generally range from the mid to 
upper 30s over interior locations (a few spotty lower 30s possible 
in normally colder locations), and in the 40s down closer to and 
along the coast as well as over portions of interior southeast MS. 
On Monday, highs are expected to mostly be in the mid and upper 60s 
across the majority of the area, with a few lower 70s in some 
western and coastal counties. /12  

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 429 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

Rain enters the forecast again as we roll through the middle part of 
the work week. Weak ridging aloft over the Southeast gets nudged 
further east as a shortwave pivots into the Upper Midwest and Great 
Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. A surface low associated 
with the shortwave quickly ejects into the Great Lakes region by 
Tuesday morning as a surface high meanders over the southwestern 
Atlantic. The trailing cold front draped down from the surface low 
will slide into the Southeast on Tuesday, but should stall to our 
north (thanks to the ridging to our south). That said, southerly 
surface flow will allow moisture to slowly increase on Tuesday with 
PWATs increasing to 1.0-1.2 inches. Kept 30-50% POPs for the Tuesday 
morning and afternoon timeframe, generally north of the coast.

Meanwhile, another shortwave trough swings across the West Coast as 
a ridge builds into the southern Gulf and Caribbean. Flow aloft 
remains nearly zonal through Tuesday night in this pattern before 
southwesterly flow sets up on Wednesday ahead of the approaching 
trough. Another surface low forms near the TX/OK panhandle on 
Wednesday as the shortwave pivots into the Plains and the surface 
low quickly ejects toward the Midwest and eventually the Great Lakes 
region on Thursday. Deep southerly flow will allow PWATs to continue 
to climb on Wednesday and Thursday. This time around, ridging 
remains just a little too far to our east, so the cold front 
associated with the aforementioned surface low should sweep across 
the area during the day on Thursday. Can't rule out a few strong to 
potentially severe storms ahead of the cold front late Wednesday 
night into early Thursday, but the set-up looks marginal at best 
right now. While there will be plenty of shear in place, the low 
level jet will be lifting out of the region with minimal instability 
in the warm sector. The best thermodynamics still look to be north 
of our area, but we will continue to monitor the evolving forecast 
for this system as we draw closer to the event. 

Mild temperatures are expected through Thursday with lows falling 
back into the 40s and 50 in the wake of the front on Thursday night. 
Risk of rip currents increases to a HIGH RISK through Thursday. Surf 
heights build to near Advisory criteria  (4-6 feet) starting on 
Wednesday afternoon. 07/mb

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 429 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

The area briefly dries out through Friday with the next chance for 
rain this upcoming weekend. 

Another shortwave trough swings into the Four Corners region on 
Friday, but guidance begins to diverge on the timing and evolution 
of the shortwave over the weekend. Meanwhile, a surface high builds 
into the region on Friday in the wake of Thursday's cold front. Dry 
air spills into much of the area on Friday, which keeps rain chances 
non-existent that day. By Saturday, a weak surface low forms over 
the western Gulf and eventually lifts toward the northern Gulf Coast 
throughout the rest of the weekend. Showers begin to spread into the 
region early Saturday morning with showers and storms possible 
through Sunday as the low approaches the area. Timing of this next 
system will ultimately determine the severe and flood potential. 
That said, strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out late in the 
weekend. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 429 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2023

A light onshore flow tonight into early Monday will be increasing
late Monday through midweek. A moderate and occasionally strong 
onshore flow, along with building seas, is expected over the 
marine area by Wednesday. SCEC conditions, and potentially SCA 
conditions, likely during the middle part of the week, potentially
bringing hazardous conditions for small craft. This pattern will 
persist into Thursday prior to the arrival of a cold front that 
will move across the marine area Thursday night, with a moderate 
to strong offshore flow developing in its wake. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      45  71  60  76  60  77  62  75 /   0  10  20  30  10  30  60  30 
Pensacola   47  70  61  76  62  76  65  77 /   0  10  20  20  10  30  50  50 
Destin      49  71  64  77  65  77  67  77 /   0   0  20  20  10  30  40  60 
Evergreen   34  66  54  75  56  76  60  73 /   0   0  20  40  10  40  60  50 
Waynesboro  38  67  57  73  57  76  58  70 /   0  10  40  40  10  30  80  30 
Camden      35  64  55  71  56  74  59  70 /   0   0  30  50  10  40  70  50 
Crestview   36  67  56  76  59  76  63  76 /   0   0  20  30  10  40  40  60 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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