827 
FXUS63 KMPX 132352
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
552 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 224 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Clouds and fog linger in parts of the area through Saturday morning.

The surface analysis this afternoon indicated a weak ridge over 
south central, east central MN, and into west central WI. Southerly 
flow developed on the west side of this ridge today along with skies 
becoming clear. Tonight's fog/low clouds is based on winds shifting 
to the south/southeast overnight and increase in speed. Until this 
develops, areas of fog and low clouds will continue for mainly the 
eastern 1/4 of MPX CWA. Very warm air will commence on Saturday 
leading to well above normal temperatures. Some residual low 
clouds/fog are possible over far eastern MN, and west central WI 
until midday. Wind speeds will also increase as a storm system moves 
along the Canada border with a strong pressure gradient developing 
over the Upper Midwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- A couple systems to watch through next week. The first Sunday night
  into Tuesday will bring widespread precip, mostly rain but some
  snow and freezing rain are possible. The second is trending south
  away from the area Thursday. 

A large scale ridge will shift east this weekend and stall over the
Appalachians in response to a cut off upper low over the western
Atlantic. A disturbance over the Desert Southwest will track
northeast in the resultant southwest upper flow and impact the region
early week. Isentropic upglide will begin Sunday night and
precipitation will break out after midnight across much of the Upper
Midwest. Temperatures aloft should be warm enough to support liquid
initially (except perhaps across western MN), but surface temps could
still be subfreezing. Therefore, some icing threat is plausible as
precipitation begins. Boundary temperatures warm above freezing
Monday and any icing threat should be minimized as plain rain becomes
the dominant p-type. Enough cold air throughout the column may still
exist across western MN to be an exception and it is here where snow
may still be the main p-type. As colder air wraps around the system
Monday night, the rain/snow line will shift east. The majority of the
precip should be done before this transition occurs across eastern MN
and WI, but it will need to be watched for the potential of light
accumulation if precip lingers longer or turns to snow quicker.

Temps will cool a bit midweek with high pressure building into the
Upper Midwest. As the last shift noted, the 00Z ECMWF was a northwest
outlier within its ensemble envelope and the 12Z has shifted
southeast a bit more in line with the bulk of the members. Most
guidance is now dry for our area and PoPs took a hit with this
afternoon's update. The upper low looks rather potent, but with a
split flow and a largely zonal southern stream, there isn't much
support to bring it this far north unless the northern and southern
streams phase. That scenario looks remote at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

FEW-SCT high clouds in western MN with low stratus, even into IFR, in
eastern MN and western WI. Little change in this scenario is expected
this evening, at least in an optimistic sense, as low stratus and fog
will develop later this evening in western MN and remain in place
through sunrise, even with breezier S winds but that is due to warm
air advection atop the snowpack creating the overnight thru midday
degraded flight conditions. Improvement to VFR at all sites not
expected until mid-to-late day Saturday. Winds throughout this cycle
will come generally from the south at close to 10 kts.

KMSP...Low stratus will be difficult to erode in eastern MN, thus
will look for the low stratus to remain in place past sunrise
Saturday morning. IFR ceilings at the start will gradually increase
to MVFR levels but remain below 1700ft through this evening and
nearly the entire overnight period. Improvement will come mid-to-late
Saturday morning, with clouds scattering out by around noon. Some
breezy/gusty winds from the south look likely for Saturday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. MVFR/Chc -RA overnight. Wind S 10 kts. 
Mon...MVFR with -RA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. 
Tue...MVFR ceilings. Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...JPC