520 
FXUS61 KBTV 312342
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Abnormally warm temperatures and rain associated with a frontal
boundary continue across the region tonight and into New Year's
Day. Warmer temperatures and a second system move into the 
region towards the middle of next week, bringing a period of 
precipitation on Tuesday, which could potentially start as 
freezing rain. The majority of the precip, however, should fall 
as light rain or showers. After challenging record high 
temperatures on Wednesday, we're looking at temps turning more 
toward seasonal normals later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 631 PM EST Saturday...Sfc analysis places weak 1006mb low
pres just north of Lake Ontario, with warm southerly flow
occurring ahead of this, along with areas of showers. The
general concept of occasional rain showers looks reasonable
this evening, along with areas of patchy fog, especially
northern NY and parts of the CT River Valley. Temps are holding
in the 40s most locations, except lower 50s here in the CPV with
southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots. As sfc low pres tracks to
our north overnight, modest llvl caa develops on west to 
northwest winds and temps wl slowly fall back into the mid 30s 
to lower 40s. These values are still much above normal for low 
on January 1st, but little warm up is anticipated on Sunday. 
Expecting as sfc low pres pulls away, areal coverage of precip 
wl become more trrn focused by morning with some wet snow flakes
possible in the mtns. All covered well in crnt fcst.

Previous discussion follows:
A shortwave continues to slowly send rain and clouds across the
boundary into our forecast area this afternoon, with several 
sites across northern New York reporting rain, including Massena
and Saranac Lake. This rain should continue into the evening 
and throughout the night as a trough heads into the region from 
the west and moisture flows in from the south. Have increasing 
PoPs in the St. Lawrence Valley for the next few hours as that 
is where the rain is concentrated for now. Temperatures are in 
the 40s to mid-50s this afternoon. Main struggle for tonight may
be keeping up with how slowly this slug of rain is moving.

Surface low pressure will deepen overtop the forecast area tonight
as it progresses eastward and northeastward through New England and
then into Atlantic Canada. This, accompanied by a 500mb shortwave
pushing through, will bring continued rain to the northern half of
the area along with the higher terrain. The spine of the Green
Mountains could get the most rain, about a quarter inch per 6 hours.
Some shadowing is expected in the Champlain and White River valleys
with PoPs only 30-40% in spots. More likely spots are the St.
Lawrence Valley and the Northeast Kingdom. Temperatures are expected
to drop into the 30s and lower 40s overnight as a cold front and
drier air begin to taper off the storm. This could mean some
snowflakes mixing across northern New York where the front will be
crossing first. Any snow is not expected to stick, and there's the
potential for some patchy fog to develop with all the moisture at
the surface.

Temperatures are anticipated to rebound tomorrow, but not to the
extent that occurred today. Highs will be in the upper 30s to upper
40s with coldest temps in northern NY post- cold front. A drying
trend is forecast in terms of precipitation tomorrow as well, with
most likely chance of lingering rain or snow in the Northeast
Kingdom before the driest air reaches that area behind the storm.
PoPs fall from 40-50% to 20-30% at most. Moisture will still be
thick in the 700mb level, however, providing a layer of low clouds
and perhaps even drizzle. We are anticipating some scattered
nuisance wintry weather (ice), perhaps in the form of freezing
drizzle. Total QPF amounts from today into tomorrow are expected to
be highly terrain and shadowing dependent, with nearly an inch on
the Greens and the St. Lawrence Valley, but closer to 0.05-0.10 of
an inch in spots west of Lake Champlain and the western White River
Valley.

Tomorrow night, temperatures are expected to keep the concern for
ice at a minimum, as any precip would likely be snow. Total snow
from tonight through tomorrow will likely be only a dusting, some
mountainous spots reaching 0.5 at most. Lows will be in the upper
20s to lower 30s, but still above average. The trend of mostly
cloudy skies will continue with some positive vorticity advection
possible, accompanied by lingering 700mb moisture. PoPs will remain
slight chance as the upper atmosphere becomes more zonal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EST Saturday...Weak high pressure along with a
relatively seasonable air mass in place will make for a rather
decent early January day across our region. A weak shortwave trough
passing to our north could bring some snow showers mainly north of
BTV during the day, but only expecting very minor accumulations up
to an inch and minimal to no impacts to travel. Otherwise, more
clouds than sun and highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Heading into overnight Monday, a vertically stacked low pressure
system will track from Kansas/Missouri towards the Great Lakes.
Ensemble guidance still shows quite a bit of spread in member low
pressure centers. Most of the overnight hours looks to be dry,
potentially allowing for decent radiational cooling to occur and
lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 20s away from the Champlain
Valley. The leading edge of the precipitation shield associated with
the warm air advection could reach western and Upstate NY during the
latter half of the overnight hours. 850mb temps rise from -5C to +5C
in 12 hours while 925mb temps also rise to above freezing after
midnight and surface temps remain below freezing. Given the deep
warm layer aloft, the most likely precipitation type will be
freezing rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 313 PM EST Saturday...Low pressure tracking along the
international border will bring a period of precipitation, with a
brief period of freezing rain during the early morning hours quickly
transitioning to rain for all locations by the mid morning hours. It
is possible that in the sheltered areas east of the Green Mountains
into the White Mountains, we could see freezing rain linger longer
and get some ice accretion, generally a few hundredths up to a tenth
of an inch. It does look to be a decent system on Tuesday with
anomalously high PWATs and good mid-level frontogenesis enhancing
the rainfall rates at times. Overall, expect around 0.25 to 0.5
inches of precipitation area wide.

Highs on Tuesday will be a little tricky but expect temperatures to
not fall all that much on Tuesday night, giving way to potentially a
very mild Wednesday with partial sunshine out ahead of a strong cold
front. If there is enough sunshine, would not be surprised to see
upper 50s to low 60s for parts of the area. After all, BTV and MPV
reached 58 and 61F respectively in the past 24 hours.

Heading into the latter half of the week, given there is still
plenty of uncertainty with the timing of the cold air advection and
how quickly the system exits, largely stuck to blended guidance but
the trend is towards a return to more seasonable conditions Thursday
into Saturday. Whether we stay dry for the latter half of the work
week remains to be seen as models remain conflicted on whether the
cold front moves out quickly or lingers to our south to give us some
wintry precipitation. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...A very challenging aviation fcst for the
next 6 to 12 hours, as crnt obs indicate conditions range from
LIFR at MSS/SLK to VFR at BTV/PBG/MPV/RUT and EFK. Fcst
soundings continue to struggle with bl conditions and being too
cold, resulting in much more low level moisture and lower prog
cigs levels. Expect MSS/SLK to continue with IFR/LIFR 
conditions in fog/br with vis btwn 1/2sm and 1sm thru 06z, with 
some improvement in vis as winds shift to the southwest aft 06z,
but IFR cigs lingering into Sunday morning. Elsewhere, 
expecting CIGS to trend toward MVFR at MPV/RUT and EFK with 
intervals of IFR possible at MPV/RUT and EFK btwn 03z-07z, 
becoming mostly IFR cigs with MVFR vis aft 06z. Have noted a 
very small temp/dwpt spread at PBG this evening with light 
winds, so would not be surprised if a period or two of IFR vis 
in BR/FOG occurs btwn 00z-03z, before winds shift to the 
southwest and conditions improve. Winds gradually become 
southwest 3 to 6 knots by 06z and west- northwest 5 to 10 knots 
by 12z Sunday. 

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
FZRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
SHRA, Chance FZRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Due to the abnormally warm temperatures the region is experiencing, 
some record high high maximum and minimum temperatures are 
likely to be set or tied this weekend. KMPV reached 61 degrees F
early Saturday morning, preliminarily breaking the daily max
temperature record for December 31.

Below are the current records:

Maximum Temperature Records 
Date     KBTV    KMPV     KPBG     KSLK
12-31  56|1965  56|1955  56|1965  51|1990
01-01  56|1966  55|1955  58|1966  50|1966

High Minimum Temperature Records
Date	KBTV     KMPV     KPBG     KSLK
12-31  39|1965  34|1948  38|1965  38|1965
01-01  38|1952  33|2012  42|1966  37|2011

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio WXM-44 atop Mount Ascutney is currently off 
the air due to a suspected problem with the RF transmission 
cable/jumper at the antenna. A site visit will be necessary to 
isolate the issue and, unfortunately, a return to service is 
unknown at this time.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Taber/Storm
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...Kremer/Verasamy
EQUIPMENT...BTV